Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

In combination with volatile global commodity markets,
exchange rate fluctuations and availability of
food aid, such drops in production risk compounding
the rise in the price of staples such as rice, corn
and wheat. 123 Rises in food prices affect the poorest
and most vulnerable population groups the most,
and can lead to suffering and social unrest.
3.6 Areas vulnerable to sea-level
rise
Map 10 shows coastal areas vulnerable to future
sea-level rise. Five colour categories are used to
illustrate levels of risk relative to elevation, with the
most vulnerable zones being areas with an elevation
of minus 5 metres (m) below sea-level (land
surface only) to 1 m above sea-level. All coastal
regions of up to 5 m in elevation have been identified
as potentially at risk because of increased
coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, and seawater
inundation. Cross-referenced population data indicates
that a 0-1 m rise in sea-level could affect over
3 million people in this region. More information on
the land area and percentage of the population at
risk from future sea-level rise in the study area can
be found in Annex 7.
The IPCC predicts an 18-59 cm sea-level rise
globally by the year 2100. However, more recent
reports point to likely global sea-level rise of close
to a metre or more by the end of the century as
a result of, for example, faster melting of the ice
sheets in Greenland. 124 In the region covered in this
report, this rise is expected to have a major effect
on some coastal areas.
The most vulnerable areas shown on the map are
near Nouakchott in Mauritania (709,000 inhabitants),
which is located 2-3 m below sea-level, and
parts of the coastline east of Accra in Ghana to
Porto-Novo in Nigeria, including Benin. Much of the
western coastal zone of the Sahel, including parts
of Senegal, the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea,
as well as further south all the way to Sierra Leone,
is also vulnerable due to its low elevation (0-1 m
above sea-level). Furthermore, six of the largest cities
of the region – Lagos (10.5 million inhabitants),
Abidjan (4.1 million), Dakar (2.8 million), Accra (2.3
million), Conakry (1.6 million) and Lomé (1.6 million)
– could be affected as they are located on
the coast, as would smaller cities such as Cotonou,
Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel
Banjul, Bissau and Porto Novo, and dense urban
areas close to the Senegal River, the Saloum Delta,
and the Volta Delta. 125 Sea-level rise could also
have an impact on agricultural production that
occurs on or near the coast, and cause saltwater
intrusion into freshwater lagoons and lake systems.
3.7 Synthesis maps
Maps 11 and 12 synthesize the information presented
in the four maps showing changes in temperature,
precipitation, drought and flooding (Maps
6-9), with a view to identifying “hotspots.” Map 11
depicts the areas where the most extreme changes
in these individual climate indicators have taken
place, while Map 12 considers the four climate
indicators together, highlighting the areas affected
by the most cumulative change over the last 40
years. Data on population dynamics and conflict
is also overlaid on these maps.
Map 11 shows clear general trends in climate for
the study region, with the north experiencing the
most extreme increases in temperature and highest
number of droughts, and the central areas facing
a high frequency of flooding. The most significant
changes in precipitation are found along parts of
the coast, as well as along a belt stretching from
northern Nigeria into southern Chad. In addition,
the map shows areas where major changes in
individual climate indicators overlap, in particular
in western Mauritania, some areas in Burkina Faso,
Niger and southern Ghana, as well as in the northern
parts of Nigeria and southern Chad. A more
nuanced analysis of areas affected by cumulative
changes in the climate indicators is presented in
Map 12.
The “hotspots” identified in Map 12 were determined
by “normalizing” the data for the individual
indicators – i.e. standardizing their values in order
to make them comparable to one another. Further,
the four climate indicators were given equal weight
in order to analyze their combined occurrences
and cumulative impact (for more information on
the methods used, please refer to Annex 3). The
colour coding used in the pie charts for each
hotspot represents the approximate proportional
influence of each climate indicator for the specific
area. While this simplified methodology does
not incorporate population and conflict variables,
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