Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

Figure 2 . Mapping climate hotspots in the Sahel
The datasets used for each of the indicators are
described in detail in Annex 5. Coastal areas vulnerable
to inundation based on potential sea-level rise
are shown in Map 10. Also calculated using mapping
data is the land area and the percentage of
the population in CILSS countries affected by the
four climate indicators (see Annex 6).
Two synthesis maps combine the data to identify
“hotspots.” Map 11 depicts the areas where the
most extreme changes have taken place in the four
individual climate indicators. Map 12 considers the
four climate indicators together, showing the areas
affected by the most cumulative change over the
last 40 years. The hotspots identified in these two
synthesis maps are of specific interest for follow-up
activities, including specific adaptation policies
and programmes.
Included on each of the maps are two additional
layers showing population trends and large-scale
conflict occurrences during the same time periods.
The conflict layer highlights areas with higher
insecurity and often more fragile governance
structures. The population data is of interest in order
to understand where populations are most at risk
from climate-related factors.
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CLIMATE INDICATORS
Slow onset Sudden onset
Sea level rise Temperature Rainfall Drought Flood
CHANGES
Extreme Cumulative
CLIMATE HOTSPOTS
3.2 Changes in temperature
Map 6 depicts the absolute changes in mean
seasonal temperature in degrees Celsius (°C)
between 1970 and 2006. The data is aggregated
from weather stations located in the region with
readings taken annually from May to October. This
period includes the rainy and cropping season
months of July to September, as well as “buffer”
months to capture natural variance. This period has
been chosen because it is the most critical time
period for agriculture-based livelihoods. Six colour
categories represent seasonal temperature ranging
from a decrease in mean temperature of -0.5°C
to an increase of greater than 2.0°C.
The data shows that there has been an overall rise in
mean seasonal temperature in CILSS countries from
1970 to 2006 of approximately 1° C (see Figure 3).
The only area to experience a decrease in seasonal
temperature is in southern Mali near Bamako, and
small adjoining parts of Burkina Faso and Guinea.
There have been very significant increases (between
1.5°C and 2°C) in the north of the region, including
in far eastern Chad and the northern regions of
Mali and Mauritania. Increases in temperature of
Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel