Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

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Table of contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 1 . Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 1.1 Objectives and methodology ....................................................13 1.2 Conceptual framework .........................................................14 1.3 Report structure ...............................................................15 2 . Regional context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 2.1 Socio-economic conditions ......................................................16 2.2 Environmental and climatic conditions .............................................18 2.3 Livelihoods: Farmers, herders and fishermen .........................................18 2.4 Natural resource governance ....................................................20 2.5 Migration in the region ..........................................................22 2.6 Conflict in the region ...........................................................25 2.7 Livelihood vulnerability ..........................................................27 3 . Mapping historical climate trends in the Sahel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29 3.1 Mapping historical climate trends in the region .......................................29 3.2 Changes in temperature ........................................................30 3.3 Changes in rainfall .............................................................34 3.4 Occurrence of drought .........................................................38 3.5 Occurrence of flooding .........................................................39 3.6 Areas vulnerable to sea-level rise ..................................................47 3.7 Synthesis maps ................................................................47 4 . Understanding climate-related conflict and migration trends in the Sahel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54 4.1 Southward migration to cities and the coast .........................................54 4.2 Environmentally induced migration due to rapid-onset disasters ..........................58 4.3 Climate-related conflict over scarce resources .......................................59 4.4. Other responses to changing climatic conditions in the Sahel ...........................62 5 . Improving adaptation planning in the Sahel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65 5.1 Reducing conflict and migration risk through sound adaptation planning ..................65 5.2 Using conflict and migration considerations to prioritize adaptation .......................67 5.3 Capitalizing on conflict and migration management to strengthen adaptation ..............69 6 . Conclusions and recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71 6.1 Conclusions ..................................................................71 6.2 Recommendations ............................................................73 Annexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77 Annex 1. Acronyms ...............................................................78 Annex 2. Glossary ................................................................80 Annex 3. Map methodologies ......................................................82 Annex 4. Migration data used (2000-2002) .............................................84 Annex 5. Summary of datasets used .................................................86 Annex 6. Land area and population affected by changes in the four climate indicators used .....90 Annex 7. Population vulnerable to sea-level rise .........................................94 Annex 8. Adapting to change: Lessons from local best practices ...........................95 Annex 9. References ..............................................................97 Annex 10. Acknowledgements ......................................................107
Figures Figure 1. Conceptual framework .....................................................14 Figure 2. Mapping climate hotspots in the Sahel .........................................30 Figure 3. Mean seasonal temperature in the CILSS countries (1970-2006) ......................31 Figure 4. Mean seasonal rainfall in the region (1900-2009) .................................35 Figure 5. Frequency and land area covered by flooding in countries experiencing 9-10 floods .....46 Figure 6. Frequency and land area covered by flooding in countries experiencing 11-12 floods ....46 Figure 7. Changes in the surface area of Lake Chad (1963-2007) ...........................62 Maps Map 1. Geographical area covered in this study ........................................13 Map 2. Population density and dynamics ..............................................16 Map 3. Cross-border transhumance routes (2001-2004) ...................................19 Map 4. Major migration flows in the region (2000-2002) ...................................24 Map 5. Conflict occurrences ........................................................26 Map 6. Temperature ..............................................................32 Map 7. Rainfall ...................................................................36 Map 8. Drought ..................................................................40 Map 9. Flooding .................................................................42 Map 10. Sea-level rise .............................................................44 Map 11. Areas affected by the most extreme changes in individual climate indicators ...........48 Map 12. Areas most affected by cumulative changes in climate ............................50 Case Studies Case study 1. What business does a herder have in town? ................................55 Case study 2. Food crisis causes pastoralists to migrate south ..............................56 Case study 3. Lake Faguibine .......................................................57 Case study 4. Flooding and migration in Ghana .........................................59 Case study 5. Farmer-herder conflict in Niger and Nigeria .................................60 Case study 6. Environmental conflicts in Lake Chad ......................................61 Case study 7. Best practices in adaptation – Association Zoramb Naagtaaba .................63 Case study 8. Burkina Faso’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) .................68 Boxes Box 1. Forest-based livelihoods ......................................................21 Box 2. The role of non-climate factors in migration and conflict .............................28 Box 3. OECD climate projections and recommendations for the Sahel .......................29 Box 4. Data limitations .............................................................31 Box 5. Overview of National Adaptation Programmes of Action in the region ...................65 Box 6. Gender inequalities related to climate change impacts, migration and conflict ...........67 Box 7. The Great Green Wall initiative for the Sahara and the Sahel ..........................69 Box 8. Integrating climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies .............69 Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel 3
Page 1 and 2: Livelihood Security Climate Change,
Page 3: Livelihood Security Climate Change,
Page 7 and 8: Preface by the Permanent Interstate
Page 9 and 10: Executive Summary “Competition be
Page 11 and 12: Livelihoods that depend on natural
Page 13 and 14: tion are regional in nature, and as
Page 15 and 16: 25°0'N 20°0'N 15°0'N 10°0'N 5°
Page 17 and 18: conflict, migration and ultimately
Page 19 and 20: A young boy tills the soil in Mali,
Page 21 and 22: 25°0'N 20°0'N 15°0'N 10°0'N 5°
Page 23 and 24: Box 1 . Forest-based livelihoods Ma
Page 25 and 26: Adverse changes in the environment,
Page 27 and 28: Conflicts in the region have result
Page 29 and 30: successive droughts, greater rain v
Page 31 and 32: 3. Mapping historical climate trend
Page 33 and 34: Box 4 . Data limitations A major ch
Page 35 and 36: Algeria Wadi Irharrhar Arlit ! Agad
Page 37 and 38: Figure 4 . Mean seasonal rainfall i
Page 39 and 40: " ! Niamey Benin bomey Algeria Vall
Page 41 and 42: These events undermine crop yields
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Page 47 and 48: Dakar T h e a m b i a Nouakchott Ba
Page 49 and 50: In combination with volatile global
Page 51 and 52: 49 Livelihood Security: Climate Cha
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area of this report (hotspots 3, 7,
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countries covered in this report, t
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lakes, rivers and coastal regions w
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Case study 4: Flooding and migratio
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farmers have become livestock-keepe
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Case study 7: Best practices in ada
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5. Improving adaptation planning in
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with regards to ethnicity or gender
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(discussed in Box 7). In 2010 alone
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6. Conclusions and recommendations
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tion risk, help prioritize adaptati
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• • • focus on the most vulne
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Annexes Annex 1 . Acronyms . . . .
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NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospher
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Livelihood security Livelihood secu
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ated to increase processing time. B
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Benin (BEN) Burkina Faso (BFA) Cape
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NESDIS-STAR - GRIDDED GLOBAL VEGETA
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Weaknesses of the dataset: • •
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Seasonal temperature trend (1970-20
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Areas affected by flooding (1985-20
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Annex 8. Adapting to change: Lesson
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Annex 9. References 1 UN Office for
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51 Wane, A. (2006). Review of the l
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102 International Organization for
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152 International Organization of M
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203 Waqo, H. & Rachael, O. (2008, 1
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Annex 10. Acknowledgements Primary
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www.unep.org/conflictsanddisasters
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Livelihood Security: Climate change, conflict and migration in - UNEP

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