Moving forward in Zimbabwe - Brooks World Poverty Institute - The ...

Moving forward in Zimbabwe
Reducing poverty and promoting growth
global competitiveness and improved living standards. In fact,
Chiripanhura (2008), after conducting a labour market survey in
the textiles sector in 2005, reported that the majority of employers
lamented that productivity in their enterprises was held back by
the lack of skilled workers, the majority of who had emigrated to
South Africa.
Figure 2.3 shows that emigration started increasing from 1996,
exceeding immigration from 1998 onwards. The official figures
used above are believed to underestimate the actual extent of net
emigration due to poor data collection at entry and exit points.
Furthermore, the figures do not capture people who leave for
neighbouring countries through illegal exit/entry points dotted
around the country, especially in 2007 and 2008 when economic
decline increased. Nonetheless, it is estimated that over three
million people, among them professionals like teachers, nurses and
doctors, are living abroad (IOM, 2005; Bloch, 2006). One of the
main push factors for migration has been political violence before
and after elections, the worst of which was experienced in June
2008. Although the majority of emigrants went to South Africa,
growing numbers are going to Mozambique and Zambia, 5 which
are poorer but stable economies.
Despite the lack of official statistics for the period beyond
2002, it is apparent that migration increased during that period.
On the basis of Statistics SA data, Makina (2007) extrapolated
migration statistics to South Africa that are represented in Figure
2.4.
The figure shows significant migration to that country as
the economic crisis deepened. The migrants’ skill base covered
the whole spectrum, but there was a relatively large presence of
unskilled and semi-skilled labour. 6
There are several reasons explaining the growth of unskilled
labour noted above. One is the introduction of cost recovery
measures in education and training since the introduction of
economic reforms in 1991, which reduced both state and personal
investment in education. Other factors include the decline in the
economy, rising poverty, the shortage of training staff in vocational
education and training institutions. In addition, unskilled labour is
not tradable and as such has no demand internationally. Where such
labour has emigrated to regional economies, it has been accused of
under-cutting local wage rates.
Notwithstanding the above, one tragedy of the crisis was
making access to education costly. From 2004 school fees, especially
at boarding schools, increased tremendously. In consequence, some
parents pulled their children out of such schools and placed them
in less expensive but poorly equipped schools, while others pulled
their children out of education altogether. Further, there was low
morale among teachers, who were not only striving to survive but
were also bearing the brunt of political persecution, especially in
the run-up to each major election. The violence that followed the
elections in 2008 doomed the education system as teachers left
schools in large numbers either to flee from persecution or because
their salaries were not adequate to provide a descent standard of
living. Most schools had closed by the second half of 2008. Thus,
the main impact of the crisis on education has been to increase
the level of illiteracy among the youth, and the adverse impact
of this development will be felt in ten to fifteen years from now,
thus compromising the long term recovery and growth of the
economy.
From another angle, the growth in unskilled labour indicates
a possible comparative advantage for the economy in producing
commodities that are labour intensive and require little skill.
Sectors with the potential to employ large numbers of unskilled
labour are hotel and tourism, construction, and agriculture. Yet the
government’s failure to recognise this advantage became a missed
opportunity. In addition, although the communal sector may be
expected to benefit from the abundant existence of unskilled
labour, the risk associated with rain-fed agriculture in addition to
costly farming inputs reduced labour absorptive capacity.
The structural growth in the labour force, together with high
participation rates in the face of economic recession, resulted in
unemployment growth. The nature, dynamics, and controversies
of unemployment are examined below.
Figure 2.3: Migration of economically active persons, 1990-2002.
Source: Statistics from CSO Labour Statistics, 2004.
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