engaging fragile states - Woodrow Wilson International Center for ...

How Can Decision-Makers
Use Global Data?
How can these findings about state fragility or resilience inform concrete decisions?
The discussion points to the need to carry out regular inspections of
the pillars on which states rest. The speakers concurred that the phenomenon
of state failure needs to be framed as a gradually unfolding process over time
rather than as a final end state at a particular moment in time. Decision-makers
need not wait until all the indicators dramatically worsen and alarm bells go off
that warn of total collapse. Once a state has reached large-scale violent conflict,
their options are fairly limited and highly costly. Action requires a huge effort
on the part of an intervening state and is likely to generate political ill will both
at home and abroad.
Much can be done in order to keep a state from reaching such extremes. By
the same token, it is artificial to look at the processes of fragility in isolation from
normal international forces and policies toward states at non-crisis times. Research
provides guidance for addressing states that face the possibility of failure but have
not reached total collapse. Carment suggested an ongoing tracking procedure is
needed that anticipates earlier turning points in advance of the onset of violent
conflict or total collapse, looks for points of leverage, and considers sequencing
and timing for engagement. Such a system would monitor indicators of the dimensions
that define a state’s strength or fragility, such as legitimacy, authority,
and capacity. All these dimensions need to be assessed to judge state fragility and
to develop plans to cope with fragility by preventing further decay. Relevant early
warning systems already operate in many international organizations and governments.
Detailed diagnostic tools for assessing the fragility and conflict of a particular
country are also available. 5
Measuring such components would generate early warnings that can trigger
efforts to keep imbalances in a state’s condition from worsening. The measures
also can be used for rebuilding states in a situation where conflict has already occurred
and government has broken down. Although it takes time to collect such
data for many countries, ongoing monitoring of the factors in real time is needed
to identify changes in a state’s risk and resiliency factors and the balance between
the two.
A particular state’s profile in terms of those factors provides clues about the
main soft spots that warrant the most attention, and thus the most cost-effective
entry points for domestic or international efforts. Because states become fragile or
fail in different ways, those entry points will differ. As Goldstone suggested, varied
24 | Engaging Fragile States: An International Policy Primer