engaging fragile states - Woodrow Wilson International Center for ...

decision not to allow armed peacekeepers to go outside Kabul for two years after
the Taliban fell, and the refusal to allow US forces to engage in security or peacekeeping
operations, provided space for the re-emergence of an organized, violent
resistance movement. This decision also missed the opportunity to gain the loyalty
of large segments of the population who live in the contested areas.
To redress this situation, many new elements are being added to the Obama
Administration’s complex strategy for Afghanistan. After General Petraeus’s assignment
to Iraq in 2007, the US embarked on a counter-insurgency campaign
in which public security was the primary metric for determining whether it was
succeeding or failing. After invading Iraq, for the first four years the US regarded
the number of Iraqis that were killed irrelevant as an indicator of success or failure.
However, when Petraeus came back and reported to Congress, he used the
fact that fewer Iraqis were getting killed as a metric. General McChrystal, the US
General in charge in Afghanistan at the time, has testified that his main metric
was also reducing Afghan civilian casualties.
For assuring the population of security, it makes little difference whether
civilians are killed by the Taliban or US troops. Either effect will aggravate the
feeling of insecurity among Afghan civilians and can result in their refusing
to cooperate in marginalizing extremists. The problems of corruption, lack
of adequate government services, and inability to deliver services at any distance
from Kabul cannot be ignored, but simply putting a lot of money into
a chaotic situation will not yield effective results. Only when a more secure
environment is guaranteed will investments and socio-economic change start
to make a difference. Economic development can help to support security, but
the dominant causation is for security to lead to economic development. Once
security is established, positive growth will take place even if nothing is done
particularly to promote it.
The next priority is humanitarian assistance. This is essential for providing
basic material needs such as food, medicine, shelter, and refugee assistance.
Following this is the issue of governance, meaning the provision of basic public
services, such as reopening of schools and hospitals, providing fresh running
water, and sanitation services. Following that is the priority of economic stabilization.
This refers to stabilizing the currency, reopening the borders and markets,
and taking other immediate measures necessary to allow commerce and trade to
operate effectively. This is virtually a cost-free undertaking, but it does require a
sophisticated knowledge of how to rebuild the central banking system to be operational.
These activities are also politically delicate, for they challenge and unavoidably
alter existing power structures.
The policy community has frequently debated the relationship between po-
46 | Engaging Fragile States:An International Policy Primer