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(ACO) regulations - American Society of Anesthesiologists

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CMS-1345-P 352<br />

actual Medicare expenditures due to more efficient care; (2) shared savings payments to <strong>ACO</strong>s;<br />

and (3) payments to CMS for shared losses when actual expenditures exceed the benchmark,<br />

resulting in a projected total <strong>of</strong> $510 million in net savings over CYs 2012 through 2014.<br />

Approximately 97 percent <strong>of</strong> the stochastic trials resulted in a net savings to the Medicare<br />

program, while the other 3 percent produced a net cost. At the extremes, the greatest simulated<br />

savings was approximately $1,960 million, while the greatest simulated cost was $270 million.<br />

A net savings (costs) occurs when the payment <strong>of</strong> earned and unearned shared-savings<br />

bonuses (less penalties collected) resulting from-- (1) reductions in spending; (2) program<br />

design; and (3) random group claim fluctuation, in total are less than (greater than) assumed<br />

savings from reductions in expenditures.<br />

As we finalize the Shared Savings Program provisions, and as the actual number <strong>of</strong><br />

participating <strong>ACO</strong>s and their characteristics become known, the range <strong>of</strong> financial outcomes will<br />

narrow. Similarly, as data become available on the initial differences between actual<br />

expenditures and the target expenditures reflected in <strong>ACO</strong> benchmarks, it will be possible to<br />

evaluate the financial effects with greater certainty. The estimate distribution shown provides an<br />

objective and reasonable indication <strong>of</strong> the likely range <strong>of</strong> financial outcomes, given the chosen<br />

variables and their assumed distributions at this time in the program's development.<br />

C. Anticipated Effects<br />

1. Effects on the Medicare Program<br />

As a voluntary program involving an innovative and complex mix <strong>of</strong> financial incentives<br />

for quality <strong>of</strong> care and efficiency gains within FFS Medicare, the Shared Savings Program could<br />

result in a wide range <strong>of</strong> possible outcomes. While examples exist across the healthcare<br />

marketplace for risk-sharing arrangements leading to efficiency gains, a one-sided model would

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