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(ACO) regulations - American Society of Anesthesiologists

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CMS-1345-P 369<br />

Category<br />

Costs<br />

COSTS<br />

Total <strong>ACO</strong> start-up investment and first year operating expenditures average from $131,643,825 to<br />

$263,287,650, for the estimated range <strong>of</strong> 75-150 participating <strong>ACO</strong>s.<br />

F. Conclusion<br />

As a result <strong>of</strong> this proposed rule, the median estimate <strong>of</strong> the financial impact from<br />

implementation <strong>of</strong> the Shared Savings Program, for CYs 2012 through 2014, is a net savings <strong>of</strong><br />

$510 million. Although this is the "best estimate" for the 3-year financial impact <strong>of</strong> the Shared<br />

Savings Program initiative, a relatively wide range <strong>of</strong> possible outcomes exists. Overall, 80<br />

percent <strong>of</strong> the stochastic trials resulted in net program savings, and the other 30 percent<br />

represented cost increases. The 10 th and 90 th percentiles <strong>of</strong> the estimate distribution show net<br />

savings <strong>of</strong> $960 million and $170 million, respectively, suggesting a 10-percent likelihood that<br />

the actual impact would exceed the respective percentile amounts. In the extreme scenarios, the<br />

results were as large as $1,960 million in savings or $270 million in costs. Lastly, the estimated<br />

aggregate cost for <strong>ACO</strong> start-up investment and first year operating expenditures in the Shared<br />

Savings Program range from $131,643,825 to $263,287,650, based on an assumed 75 to 150<br />

<strong>ACO</strong>s participating in the Shared Savings Program.<br />

In accordance with the provisions <strong>of</strong> Executive Order 12866, this regulation was<br />

reviewed by the Office <strong>of</strong> Management and Budget.

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