Growth of Scarborough Study - Scarborough Borough Council

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9.3.4 The process of attaching numbers to each scenario therefore involves establishing the theoretical economic balance. 9.3.5 Given the fundamental principle of balancing housing with jobs within the context of poor economic activity rates among the existing population, the scenarios must test different extents to which improved critical mass for investment in the town can be achieved through in-migration relative to an increase in economic activity rates. At the same time, given progress with the RSS and the opportunity to influence it, the scenarios should, at least in part, relate to the regional scenarios of (A) responding to market forces, (B) matching need with opportunity, and (C) managing the environment as a key resource. 9.4 Range of scenarios 9.4.1 Given the starting points above, a range of scenarios involving a wide range of housing growth rates and implied policy interventions were initially identified, three of which were discounted (shown in italics) as non-starters for the reasons stated in the table below: Scenario No. Title Equivalent/ focus Housing growth (2004- 2021) 1 Restrictive growth (managing decline?) 2 Current planned/ historic growth 3 Continuation of recent housing trends (i.e. 2000- 2004) Equivalent to RSS Scenarios (C in concept, all in numbers), below recent past trends and Structure Plan annual housing growth rate Focus on indigenous economic development, environmental conservation, restricted housing land allocations and linked revival of leisure/ tourism market Equivalent to Adopted Structure Plan targets Similar to above, but less restricted housing land allocations as per current plans Equivalent to RSS Scenario A (in concept only) Focus on continuation of recent market forces, limited intervention in 3,500 to 4,500 new dwellings in the urban area (i.e. 205 to 265 dwellings pa) 4,500 to 5,500 new dwellings in the urban area (i.e. 265 to 324 dwellings pa) 5,500 to 6,500 new dwellings in the urban area (i.e. 324 to 382 Reasons for retaining (or discounting) (This is below current planned housing targets and significantly below recent development trends. This would lack critical mass to support desirable economic development and social infrastructure. It is a backward step rather than a starting point for growth.) (Although this is the current planned starting point, it is below recent development trends in the Borough as a whole, indicating good market demand for still greater levels of growth than implied under this option. Notwithstanding, such planned growth has done little to support the desired critical mass.) This is considered as the minimum level of growth given the market has been able to sustain a healthy level of average 445 dwellings per annum across the Borough over this period – Doc No CBHABG000/3 Rev: 0 Date: May 2005 56 C:\Documents and Settings\SpracklenA\My Documents\Projects\Scarborough growth study\Final Report\Final Report FINAL.doc
Scenario No. Title Equivalent/ focus Housing growth (2004- 2021) regeneration and gradual dwellings pa) take-off of urban renaissance with greater flexibility with land allocations in the longer 4 Broadening horizons 5 Dynamic rebranding 6 Super transformation term Equivalent to RSS Scenario B (in concept only) A sub-regional focus of development by 2021, linking need with opportunity and attracting limited inward investment and migration Urban renaissance takesoff more rapidly than under Scenario 4 Going for growth ‘big time’ Based on substantial rebranding of Scarborough A regional focus of development by 2021 based on significant inward investment, new quality housing and transformed cultural offer Going for growth ‘big time’ Based on greater and more rapid economic uplift of Scenario 5 above A regional focus of development by 2021 based on significant inward investment, new quality housing and transformed cultural offer 6,500 to 8,000 new dwellings in the urban area (i.e. 382 to 470 dwellings pa) 8,000 to 10,000 new dwellings in the urban area (i.e. 470 to 588 dwellings pa) 10,000 to 12,000 new dwellings in the urban area (i.e. 588 to 706 dwellings pa) Reasons for retaining (or discounting) equivalent to 338 per annum in the Scarborough town area (see note in para. 11.2). Mid-range growth rate in line with Borough peaks in housing development over the past 10-12 years. Upper-range of SBC Housing Futures Discussion Paper. Housing growth rate rarely achieved at town or Borough level. Tests the maximum potential of the town. (Considered unrealistic, at least in the period to 2021.) Doc No CBHABG000/3 Rev: 0 Date: May 2005 57 C:\Documents and Settings\SpracklenA\My Documents\Projects\Scarborough growth study\Final Report\Final Report FINAL.doc
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Scarborough Borough Council Scarbor
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Scarborough Borough Council Scarbor
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6.3 Strategic North/South Links 43
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Scarborough Borough Council. The re
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2 Overview of key issues 2.1 Consul
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Page 20 and 21: 3.3.4 Examination of the Environmen
Page 22 and 23: 4 Economic capacity 4.1 Introductio
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Page 34 and 35: the sectors, namely McCain Foods (f
Page 36 and 37: 4.6 Business base 4.6.1 Driven by S
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Page 44 and 45: Urban Renaissance Programme and the
Page 46 and 47: 6 Transport capacity 6.1 Policy Con
Page 48 and 49: 6.2.6 Section 7.24 of the Broad Bas
Page 50 and 51: 6.4.2 The road network within Scarb
Page 52 and 53: approximately 500 to approximately
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Page 60 and 61: Conclusion Expansion of gas usage i
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Page 66 and 67: 9.5.5 The baseline economic forecas
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Page 70 and 71: BOROUGH Level Analysis Additional D
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Page 74 and 75: Qualitative Indicators Dimensions C
Page 76 and 77: Scenario 3 (trend) 32,000 30,000 Dw
Page 78 and 79: Principal design characteristics Tr
Page 80 and 81: Scenario 4 (trend) 34,000 32,000 30
Page 82 and 83: Qualitative Indicators Dimensions C
Page 84 and 85: Numerical indicators Elements 2004
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Page 90 and 91: Target Areas Figure 9-10: Potential
Page 92 and 93: Key criteria Ability to rebalance t
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Page 100 and 101: Doc No CBHABG000/3 Rev: 0 Date: May
Page 102 and 103: Sc. Benefits and impacts Phasing Ac
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Page 106 and 107: 10.6.3 In view of this our recommen
Page 108 and 109: Appendix 1
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Appendix 2
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Key issues Key information Question
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Key issues Key information Question
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APPENDIX 3 CONSULTEES AND KEY POINT
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Nitesh Patel - Water Resources (012
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Scarborough Growth Potential Study
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APPENDIX 4 POLICY CASCADE European
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European Level National Level Regio
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Appendix 5
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Growth of Scarborough Study - Scarborough Borough Council

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