Scenario 4 (trend) 34,000 32,000 30,000 Dwelling/job growth 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Plan year (from 1 April) Housing between and Jobs between and Doc No CBHABG000/3 Rev: 0 Date: May 2005 74 C:\Documents and Settings\SpracklenA\My Documents\Projects\<strong>Scarborough</strong> growth study\Final Report\Final Report FINAL.doc
Scenario 5: Dynamic Re-branding Major step change in housing development rates and economic growth based on a regional focus for regeneration in <strong>Scarborough</strong>, i.e. development and policy approaches that give the town high priority for planned growth and infrastructure investment within the region Based around concerted efforts to re-brand the town through innovative high-pr<strong>of</strong>ile architecture and design and intensive marketing <strong>of</strong> the town’s lifestyle <strong>of</strong>fer for residents, visitors and businesses alike Development momentum rates, once built up, would be very favourable in creating critical mass in the medium to long term Urban renaissance and regeneration combined with significant and substantial expansion <strong>of</strong> the town Reliance on existing housing allocations and urban potential coming forward very swiftly, through public intervention, with additional land required in the medium term Achieving economic balance will be unrealistic to achieve within the same plan period with a need to more than treble the number <strong>of</strong> jobs created than current trends would imply –should critical mass be gained, potential for achieving such balance post-2021 in the very long term Qualitative Indicators Dimensions Characteristics Also refer to Scale <strong>of</strong> growth See numerical indicators below Pace <strong>of</strong> growth 14 High to very high, with rapid build up <strong>of</strong> momentum required Timeline Locational emphasis Existing urban potential and allocations would need to be realised in the short term, with early planning for expanding the availability <strong>of</strong> development land in the medium term. Whilst a sequential approach will be pursued, early release <strong>of</strong> allocated housing land – subject to early review in the light <strong>of</strong> longer term land requirements, so as to achieve more sustainable forms <strong>of</strong> development – would be required so as to not risk significant delay in the scale and pace <strong>of</strong> growth envisaged. Spatial model A hybrid approach combining that <strong>of</strong> urban villages on large brownfield and Concept diagram all greenfield sites, with urban consolidation and corridor development playing an important and intense role elsewhere in the town. This will mean early masterplanning <strong>of</strong> new urban areas, paying close attention to integration and regeneration <strong>of</strong> existing neighbourhoods, e.g. Eastfield, whilst consolidating and ‘repairing’ the existing urban form through a sequential approach. Sectoral emphasis/ economic conditions Whilst developing the existing employment base <strong>of</strong> the town and increasing economic activity rates will continue to be an essential starting point, this scenario would require substantial, coordinated interventions to support diversification and inward investment. The key focus would be on developing and attracting high-value jobs in high quality business accommodation both in the town centre and at <strong>Scarborough</strong> Business Park. The town’s housing, cultural and lifestyle <strong>of</strong>fer would have to be developed to support such a step change. Retail, leisure and tourism expansion, led by the resident and visiting population increase, would follow. Market conditions Difficult to envisage this level <strong>of</strong> residential growth from a market 14 The pace <strong>of</strong> growth is very much dependent on the availability and developability <strong>of</strong> suitable development sites and the market and economic context, and is increasingly difficult to predict in the longer term. More detailed analysis <strong>of</strong> development opportunities will be required. Doc No CBHABG000/3 Rev: 0 Date: May 2005 75 C:\Documents and Settings\SpracklenA\My Documents\Projects\<strong>Scarborough</strong> growth study\Final Report\Final Report FINAL.doc
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