Growth of Scarborough Study - Scarborough Borough Council

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Key criteria Ability to rebalance the population’s social and demographic characteristics Ability to achieve a sustainable balance of jobs and homes Employment growth targeted at achieving sustainability (resilience of economic base) Ability to generate wealth locally Ability to achieve spatial coherence and social integration in terms of health and community (at all levels?) Environmental sustainability, i.e. water conservation targets, energy conservation targets, landscape and visual impact Transport accessibility Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 9.10 Phasing determinants 9.10.1 The key determinants of the path of growth are suggested as follows: Determinant Assumptions 16 Application to growth profiles Practicality of delivery of infrastructure A64 dualing (catalyst for further housing and commercial development) Market and economic conditions Key infrastructure takes account of: • Lead-in times (planning, design and construction) • Priority given to infrastructure • Past precedents, e.g. lead-in times for school development, where known • Delivery deadline relative to other major infrastructure works Assume full scheme not operational until 2014 at the earliest – subject to fast-track planning and regional prioritisation • Macro: who knows? Assume continuation of relative economic stability – low/moderate inflation, high national growth (2.5% growth in GDP by 200917) and steadily increasing house prices (4% annual increase in 2005, 2% in both 2006 and 2007) 18 - see also next item • Micro: assume that current employment land take-up and accompanying marketing strategies continue to at least 2008 (see below); thereafter substantial economic intervention tools start to kick in to stimulate inward investment and growth in key higher-value sectors Thresholds/ triggers and lead-in times shown on growth profile; profile also reflects nature/ quantum of infrastructure required at any one point, as far as possible Momentum not picked up until after this date Assume current housing growth can be maintained, subject to availability of suitable sites 16 The accuracy of some assumptions will be dependent on the success of the implementation arrangements proposed, particularly the degree to which they provide greater certainty and reduced risk. 17 Source: Forecasts for the UK Economy, HM Treasury, May 2005 18 Source: CML’s Market Forecasts http://www.rics.org/Property/Residentialproperty/Residentialpropertymarket/forecastroundup.html Doc No CBHABG000/3 Rev: 0 Date: May 2005 80 C:\Documents and Settings\SpracklenA\My Documents\Projects\Scarborough growth study\Final Report\Final Report FINAL.doc
Determinant Assumptions 16 Application to growth profiles Lead-in times for Development Plan review and development control decisions • Estimated lead-in time for adoption of RSS min. 18 months if given appropriate priority; LDF min. 2 years assuming fast-tracking through inquiry etc. – hence assume complete revised Development Plan in place for 2008/09 Momentum cannot increase until after planning framework in place • Assume that DC function is resource-enhanced with dedicated major projects team to fast-track Past development performance – rate and quantum Urban capacity and the condition of available sites Timing and implementation of competing developments elsewhere in North Yorkshire and further afield Benchmarking against current/ past precedents of major developments decision-making of planning applications • Over 1991-2004, the proportion of housing developed in Scarborough urban area has steadily averaged 76% of the total numbers developed in the whole Borough • Average annual housing rate in Scarborough Borough over past 12 years 417 dwellings per annum; last 5 years 440 dpa in the urban area Current19 urban potential ranges from 3,400 dwellings (discounted) through to approx. 5,100. (The respective figures are 5149, 3406, 73.4% and 70.6%.) We assume that funding would be made available to assist in land remediation where not otherwise viable. Not such an issue with housing; need to investigate major competing employment land forthcoming in other parts of the sub-region Comparisons with other high growth areas will provide evidence of the capacity of the private sector to increase build-out rates. Apportionment roughly based on past trends; housing/ employment land completion rate must pick up from current starting point This affects the ability of urban renaissance to occur; the site conditions will affect how soon they come forward for development This will affect when momentum in economic growth picks up – may have to concede that housing grows at faster rate in short/ medium term (with commuting implications) To double check that high housing completion rates are possible, and under what conditions 9.10.2 The case for dualing the A64 is one that particularly comes into focus under higher rates of economic growth. It is our view that to achieve such step changes, such an improvement will make a difference to the perceptions of Scarborough. However, this is not a panacea to resolving more fundamental economic issues referred to above. Substantial improvements to the A64 will need to be considered as part of a comprehensive and concerted package of regeneration initiatives and in that context will be assessed in the light of other regional priorities. 19 As at June 205 – an update on that compiled in Appendix 2. Doc No CBHABG000/3 Rev: 0 Date: May 2005 81 C:\Documents and Settings\SpracklenA\My Documents\Projects\Scarborough growth study\Final Report\Final Report FINAL.doc
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Scarborough Borough Council Scarbor
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Scarborough Borough Council Scarbor
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6.3 Strategic North/South Links 43
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Scarborough Borough Council. The re
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2 Overview of key issues 2.1 Consul
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elative to other regional and sub-r
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domains. Concentrations of deprivat
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social inclusion and economic devel
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(b) Existing urban potential of Sca
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3.3.4 Examination of the Environmen
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4 Economic capacity 4.1 Introductio
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Figure 4-2: Change in population be
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Figure 4-4: Change in population ba
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Figure 4-6: Unemployment levels 200
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Figure 4-8: Change in employment be
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working could improve the prospects
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the sectors, namely McCain Foods (f
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4.6 Business base 4.6.1 Driven by S
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Figure 4-11: Business Formation Rat
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4.7.5 On the demand side, the repor
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Page 46 and 47: 6 Transport capacity 6.1 Policy Con
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Page 50 and 51: 6.4.2 The road network within Scarb
Page 52 and 53: approximately 500 to approximately
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Page 56 and 57: eplaced to meet the additional dema
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Page 90 and 91: Target Areas Figure 9-10: Potential
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Page 102 and 103: Sc. Benefits and impacts Phasing Ac
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Page 110 and 111: Ref. Title Date Format 19a A64 Road
Page 114 and 115: Key issues Key information Question
Page 116 and 117: Key issues Key information Question
Page 118 and 119: APPENDIX 3 CONSULTEES AND KEY POINT
Page 120 and 121: Nitesh Patel - Water Resources (012
Page 122 and 123: Scarborough Growth Potential Study
Page 126 and 127: APPENDIX 4 POLICY CASCADE European
Page 128 and 129: European Level National Level Regio
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Growth of Scarborough Study - Scarborough Borough Council

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