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Introduction: Child Mortality
One of the overarching goals of the MDGs is the reduction of infant and under-five mortality.
Specifically, the MDGs call for the reduction in under-five mortality by two-thirds between
1990 and 2015. The infant mortality rate is the probability of dying before the first birthday.
The under-five mortality rate is the probability of dying before the fifth birthday.
Monitoring progress towards this goal is an important but challenging objective. Measuring
childhood mortality is a complex process. For instance, attempts using direct questions such as
Has anyone in this household died in the last year? often give inaccurate results. Using direct
measures of child mortality from birth histories is time consuming, more expensive, and
requires greater attention to the training and supervision of surveyors. Alternatively, indirect
methods developed to measure child mortality produce estimates that are comparable with the
ones obtained from other sources. Indirect methods minimize the pitfalls of memory lapses,
inexact or misinterpreted definitions, and poor interviewing technique.
Child Mortality Estimates for Afghanistan
In MICS surveys, infant and under five mortality rates are calculated based on an indirect
estimation technique known as the Brass method 8 . The data used in the estimation are: the
mean number of children ever born for five year age groups of women from age 15 to 49, and
the proportion of these children who are dead, also for five-year age groups of women (Table
4.1). The technique converts the proportions dead among children of women in each age group
into probabilities of dying by taking into account the approximate length of exposure of children
to the risk of dying, assuming a particular model age pattern of mortality. The West model life
table was selected, as it is most appropriate for Afghanistan, based on recommendations in the
United Nations Manual X: Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation.
Table 4.1: Children ever born, children surviving and proportion dead
Age
Children ever born
Children surviving
Mean Total Mean Total
Proportion
dead
Number of
women
15-19 0.130 716 0.121 664 0.072 5,510
20-24 1.194 4,905 1.094 4,496 0.083 4,110
25-29 3.024 10,823 2.751 9,844 0.090 3,579
30-34 4.714 11,596 4.241 10,433 0.100 2,460
35-39 6.128 14,636 5.440 12,993 0.112 2,389
40-44 6.756 12,197 5.871 10,600 0.131 1,805
45-49 7.173 10,313 6.107 8,781 0.149 1,438
Total 3.062 65,187 2.715 57,810 0.113 21,290
Table 4.2 provides estimates of child mortality. The infant mortality rate is estimated at 74 per
thousand live births, while the probability of dying under age 5 (U5MR) is around 102 per
8
United Nations (1983). Manual X: Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation (United Nations publication,
Sales No. E.83.XIII.2); United Nations (1990a); QFIVE, United Nations Program for Child Mortality Estimation.
New York: UN Pop Division; United Nations (1990b). Step-by-step Guide to the Estimation of Child Mortality.
New York: UN.
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