An Introduction to Critical Thinking and Creativity - always yours

120 SCIENTIFIC REASONING
dollars into your bank account. The fact that these solicitations do not disappear
probably indicates that there are still many people who fall for them.
13.1.9 Simplicity
Roughly speaking, a simple theory is one with fewer assumptions and that posits
fewer entities than its competitors. Many scientists believe strongly that we should
search for simple theories if feasible. Albert Einstein once said, "Nature is the realization
of the simplest that is mathematically conceivable."
But why should we prefer simple theories? Is there any reason for thinking that
the world is more likely to be simple than complicated? The value of simplicity as
a theoretical virtue is disputed by many, and it would be impossible to settle the
debate here. However, simple theories have a number of advantages. First, they
are often easier to apply, so there is a practical reason to prefer a simpler theory.
Second, a complicated theory postulating lots of different entities would require
more evidence to support it. Finally, looking for simple theories coincide with the
search for unifying causal mechanisms in our explanations. They help us understand
the connections between different areas and offer a deeper explanation of
the world.
Weeping statues and miracles
There are frequent reports of miracles by which religious statues wept
tears or blood. People would come and worship the statutes and some
even have claimed that the statues cured their illnesses. For example, in
2002, a Virgin Mary statue near Perth, Australia, wept red tears for nearly
five months, attracting lots of pilgrims. It is of course logically possible
that a miracle had occurred, but the alternative explanation is that the
tears were the result of either a hoax or natural causes (such as rust or
melting paint). It is interesting that the tears in this particular case were
found to be a mixture of vegetable oil and rose oil. When the statute
was removed and placed under observation so that nobody could tamper
with it, the tears stopped. The vegetable and rose oil could of course
still be a miracle. But if we apply the inference to the best explanation,
taking into account considerations such as simplicity and coherence, the
supernatural explanation is not the most plausible one.
13.2 RELYING ON EXPERT OPINION
We cannot possibly know everything, and inevitably we need to rely on other people's
analyses and opinions, especially when it comes to scientific or technical
matters. But deferring to an expert does not mean we can stop thinking criti-