An Introduction to Critical Thinking and Creativity - always yours

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130 MILLS METHODS feet is not among them, obviously the five rules will not yield the correct result. Of course, we can always expand or change the list of candidate causes. But Mill's methods will be more effective when we already have a good idea about what the possible causes of the effect might be. • The effect might have more than one cause. Mill's methods can fail spectacularly when more than one candidate cause can bring about the same effect. It might be true that everybody who ate oysters got sick. But perhaps the oysters were fine, and it was the salad and the noodles that had gone bad. It just so happened that everyone ate either salad or noodles. But the method of agreement will give us the wrong result. 1 • Causation can be indeterministic. Throwing a rock at a window might cause it to break, but not always. A heart attack can result in death, but again not every time. Mill's methods can give the wrong results when dealing with probabilistic causes. Take the joint method for example, where the cause is supposed to be the condition that occurs when and only when the effect is present. This rules out causes that do not determine their effects but that make them highly probable. Having noted some of the limitations of Mill's methods, it should be said that they remain important tools of scientific reasoning. They do not guarantee that you will find the real cause of an effect, but they are good heuristics to try out in causal investigations. EXERCISES 14.1 Which of Mill's method is used in the following pieces of reasoning? a) Pressure decreases productivity, because the more pressure I suffer from, the less work I am able to do. b) You were fine when you ate the pudding last week. The pudding this week was no different, except that I put in alcohol. So if you had an allergic reaction this time it must have been the alcohol. c) Amie thinks that drinking warm milk before bed makes her sleep better. She tried lots of things like listening to relaxing music, meditation, reading a book, and even combinations of these methods. But every time after drinking warm milk she slept soundly, and nothing else worked. d) Two identical cars were being driven in the same way along the same route, except that one of them has less pressure in the tires. It turns out that this car ends up using more fuel to travel the same distance. So inadequate tyre pressure causes a higher fuel consumption. 1 Mill's methods can actually be used to identify causes that are combinations of events. What we need to do is to expand the list of candidate causes so that it includes combination of events, such as "salad or noodles" being one single candidate cause. But we might need to consider more situations before we can conclude which event or combination of events is the cause.
EXERCISES 131 14.2 Consider the table in Section 14.3 used to illustrate the joint method. Was any situation redundant? In other words, was there any situation in the table that could have been removed, but the same conclusion could still be derived using the resulting information? 14.3 In each table below, find the cause of E and explain which of Mill's methods is being used. If none of them can be applied, explain why. a) Situation Candidate causes A B C D Effect E 1 / / X / / 2 / X / X / 3 X / X X / Situation 1 2 Candidate causes A B C D / X X / / / X / / X Effect 3 X / / X / 4 X X X / X Situation 1 Candidate causes A B C D / / X / X Effect 2 / X X X X 3 X X / / / 4 / / X / X
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Copyright © 2011 by John Wiley & S
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VIII CONTENTS 9 Valid and sound arg
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X PREFACE • This book has a compa
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2 INTRODUCTION Which is more import
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4 INTRODUCTION knowing the rules of
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6 INTRODUCTION 1. The first questio
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8 INTRODUCTION • Open-mindedness:
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12 THINKING AND WRITING CLEARLY Con
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14 THINKING AND WRITING CLEARLY own
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16 THINKING AND WRITING CLEARLY •
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18 THINKING AND WRITING CLEARLY Tip
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20 THINKING AND WRITING CLEARLY g)
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22 DEFINITIONS • The referent of
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24 DEFINITIONS is too wide because
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26 DEFINITIONS sophisticated sense.
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28 DEFINITIONS 3.5.2 Definition by
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30 DEFINITIONS 3.2 Evaluate these d
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34 NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONDITI
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42 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS ambiguous. A
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44 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS change of di
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46 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS BILLY : All
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48 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS absolve anyb
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50 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS 5.4 GOBBLEDY
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52 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS c) Our cooki
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54 TRUTH false, but we would never
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56 TRUTH matter of linguistic conve
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58 TRUTH i) If Rebecca is Shannon's
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60 BASIC LOGIC 7.1.1 Consistency A
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62 BASIC LOGIC Q, or equivalently,
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64 BASIC LOGIC "or both", or "but n
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66 BASIC LOGIC • PiffQ. • P whe
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70 IDENTIFYING ARGUMENTS of opinion
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72 IDENTIFYING ARGUMENTS it easier
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76 VALID AND SOUND ARGUMENTS This s
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78 VALID AND SOUND ARGUMENTS genera
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Page 96 and 97: 84 VALID AND SOUND ARGUMENTS 9.4 SO
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Page 100 and 101: 88 INDUCTIVE REASONING highly confi
Page 102 and 103: 90 INDUCTIVE REASONING elusion give
Page 104 and 105: 92 INDUCTIVE REASONING tive strengt
Page 108 and 109: 96 ARGUMENT MAPPING Every person is
Page 110 and 111: 98 ARGUMENT MAPPING of arguments ex
Page 112 and 113: 100 ARGUMENT MAPPING elusion. Separ
Page 114 and 115: 102 ARGUMENT MAPPING Homosexuality
Page 116 and 117: 104 ARGUMENT MAPPING a) High school
Page 120 and 121: 108 ARGUMENT ANALYSIS ing. It will
Page 122 and 123: 110 ARGUMENT ANALYSIS As an example
Page 124 and 125: 112 ARGUMENT ANALYSIS b) We should
Page 126 and 127: 114 SCIENTIFIC REASONING or perhaps
Page 128 and 129: 116 SCIENTIFIC REASONING crease our
Page 130 and 131: 118 SCIENTIFIC REASONING the planet
Page 132 and 133: 120 SCIENTIFIC REASONING dollars in
Page 134 and 135: 122 SCIENTIFIC REASONING report. Ho
Page 136 and 137: 124 SCIENTIFIC REASONING 13.3 Some
Page 138 and 139: 126 MILLS METHODS 14.1 THE METHOD O
Page 140 and 141: 128 MILLS METHODS 14.3 THE JOINT ME
Page 144 and 145: 132 MILLS METHODS d) Situation Cand
Page 146 and 147: 134 REASONING ABOUT CAUSATION Simil
Page 148 and 149: 136 REASONING ABOUT CAUSATION suffe
Page 150 and 151: 138 REASONING ABOUT CAUSATION immor
Page 152 and 153: 140 REASONING ABOUT CAUSATION i) Te
Page 154 and 155: 142 DIAGRAMS OF CAUSAL PROCESSES an
Page 156 and 157: 144 DIAGRAMS OF CAUSAL PROCESSES co
Page 158 and 159: 146 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY 17.1
Page 160 and 161: 148 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY •
Page 162 and 163: 150 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY A mi
Page 164 and 165: 152 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY On t
Page 166 and 167: 154 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY 17.4
Page 168 and 169: 156 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY 4,12
Page 172 and 173: 160 THINKING ABOUT VALUES It is the
Page 174 and 175: 162 THINKING ABOUT VALUES Once thes
Page 176 and 177: 164 THINKING ABOUT VALUES is flat o
Page 178 and 179: 166 THINKING ABOUT VALUES will be c
Page 180 and 181: 168 THINKING ABOUT VALUES Similarly
Page 182 and 183: 170 THINKING ABOUT VALUES 18.2 M Ou
Page 186 and 187: 174 FALLACIES One further clarifica
Page 188 and 189: 176 FALLACIES All circular argument
Page 190 and 191: 178 FALLACIES 19.4.1 Irrelevant res
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180 FALLACIES the question. Murder,
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182 FALLACIES • Non sequitur: Non
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184 FALLACIES g) All my Facebook fr
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186 COGNITIVE BIASES These question
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188 COGNITIVE BIASES • Subjects w
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190 COGNITIVE BIASES more likely to
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192 COGNITIVE BIASES - Avoid framin
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196 ANALOGICAL REASONING a big appe
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198 ANALOGICAL REASONING Furthermor
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202 MAKING RATIONAL DECISIONS 22.1
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204 MAKING RATIONAL DECISIONS So if
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206 MAKING RATIONAL DECISIONS the s
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208 MAKING RATIONAL DECISIONS succe
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210 MAKING RATIONAL DECISIONS about
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212 MAKING RATIONAL DECISIONS EXERC
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216 WHAT IS CREATIVITY? The observa
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218 WHAT IS CREATIVITY? Step 1 : Pr
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220 WHAT IS CREATIVITY? remedy our
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224 CREATIVE THINKING HABITS made o
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226 CREATIVE THINKING HABITS materi
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228 CREATIVE THINKING HABITS orate
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230 CREATIVE THINKING HABITS Ellis
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234 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES any of t
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236 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES SOLUTION
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242 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES 1 l.l.h
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244 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES 12.1.f T
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246 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES 13.4 One
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250 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES 17.3.d T
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252 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES 19.2.e F
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Bibliography Ackerman, J., Nocera,
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258 BIBLIOGRAPHY McRae, C, Cherin,
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260 BIBLIOGRAPHY Wolf, G. (1996). S
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262 INDEX consequentialist reasonin
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