An Introduction to Critical Thinking and Creativity - always yours

RELYING ON EXPERT OPINION 121
cally. In particular, we should check whether the expert is credible, accurate, and
unbiased. Here is a checklist of questions to think about:
• What exactly is the expert's opinion? Sometimes media headlines can misrepresent
an expert's opinion. A scientist might say there is some weak evidence
suggesting a correlation between A and B, but the headline might
simply say "A causes B." So check the actual evidence carefully.
• Is the expert in the right field? Information is more reliable when it comes
from an expert who knows the topic well. In 2008, Europe's CERN laboratory
was about to activate a giant particle collider for studying subatomic
physics. But according to German chemist Otto Rössler, the experiment
should not proceed because it might create mini blackholes that could destroy
the Earth. Rössler might be an expert in chemistry, but it does not
mean he is equally an expert in particle physics. The collider is now in use
and luckily we are still here.
• Is the expert reliable? Does he or she have a good reputation? Sometimes
the expert is anonymous, so we cannot verify the reliability of the expert. So
be careful with information from web pages and blog posts with no citation.
Furthermore, doctorate degrees and special titles might not mean much.
Even experts can often get things wrong, so it will be useful to know the past
record of their opinion.
• What is the context in which the opinion is made? We have seen that
quotes can be taken out of context. And sometimes people are joking, being
emotional, or not being serious for some other reason. An opinion expressed
informally might be more of a hunch than a judgment made in a
public forum. An opinion expressed by an official and reputable professional
organization is more weighty than one from an unknown scientist. A
study published in a well-known journal probably has gone through a more
rigorous review process than an unpublished report.
• Do other authorities in the same field agree with the opinion? We should
be cautious if authoritative experts disagree with each other. The credibility
of an opinion increases when it is free from any serious dispute among independent
experts in the same area. This is one reason why it is a good idea
to get a second opinion when you are deciding what to do with a serious
medical condition. Of course, with about seven billion people in the world,
you can expect disagreement on just about every issue. We would need to
evaluate the extent of the disagreement and the arguments on both sides.
• Is there any conflict of interest? If a tobacco company says smoking is
healthy, the claim does not have a lot of credibility since the company would
benefit from lying. Similarly, if a software company commissions an expert
who then publishes a report saying that the company's operating system is
the most secure one in the market, we should be somewhat skeptical of the