An Introduction to Critical Thinking and Creativity - always yours

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248 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES SOLUTIONS FOR CHAPTER 16 16.1 16.2 SOLUTIONS FOR CHAPTER 17 17.1.a Readers of Playboy (and those willing to be interviewed) might not be representative of the male population as a whole. One might wonder whether these subjects are more likely to exaggerate when being interviewed. 17.1.b This inference is not unreasonable if the sample is a representative one. But this might not always be true—the soup might need stirring after ingredients have just been added. 17.1.C Not a good argument. It confuses the relative increase in risk (the 100% in the first sentence) with the absolute risk (the second one). 17.1.d The sample is not as representative as one might like, since the men were interviewed outside a toy shop on a Sunday. They were more likely to be family-minded people. 17.1.e There are many reasons why students skip lectures, such as time-tabling issues. But the other problem with the argument that has to do with statistics is that no information is
SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES 249 given about student number. A larger class will have more students skipping, and it is the ratio that should be compared, not the absolute number. 17.1.f There are no data about the sample size and the number of companies surveyed. But the more serious problem is that the data cited are about only a correlation between two ratings by the respondents. There is no evidence of the direction of causation, and in fact no data at all about the actual qualities (for example, the degree of creativity) that the ratings are supposed to reflect. 17.1.g This question concerns a topic we have not discussed in this chapter. If average means "arithmetical mean", then a $9 average is compatible with there being lots of very expensive games and lots of very cheap ones. So it does not follow that most of the games are under $10. To learn more, go online and search for "mean", "median" and "mode". 17.1.h Whether it is worth the higher price depends of course on lots of things: how rich you are, whether there are side effects, and so on. But it might also be useful to check the reduction in risk in absolute terms. A reduction of the heart attack rate from 2.5% to 2% is a 20% reduction, but the 0.5% difference is not so impressive any more. 17.2.a Yes. 17.2.b No. Some people might have no opinion. Others might approve or disapprove, but not strongly. 17.2.C "Up 6%" is a comparison, "at 6%" is not. 17.2.d GDP still increases if GDP growth is weak, but not when it is declining. 17.3.a There is no vertical scale, and it does not seem to start from zero. According to the figures shown, the number of people who disagree is only about 18% more than the number of those who agree. But the difference in height conveys a very different and misleading impression. 17.3.b Again there is no vertical scale. Also, the width of the second bar has changed for no reason. The profit has nearly doubled, which corresponds to the difference in height, but the unmotivated change in width gives the inaccurate impression that the profit has increased by a lot more than that. 17.3.C The vertical scale is strange and as a result gives the misleading impression that the increase in failure rate has slowed down, when in fact the opposite is true: 70%.................... 60 50 40 30 20 10 00 01 02 03 04
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Copyright © 2011 by John Wiley & S
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VIII CONTENTS 9 Valid and sound arg
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X PREFACE • This book has a compa
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2 INTRODUCTION Which is more import
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4 INTRODUCTION knowing the rules of
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6 INTRODUCTION 1. The first questio
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8 INTRODUCTION • Open-mindedness:
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12 THINKING AND WRITING CLEARLY Con
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14 THINKING AND WRITING CLEARLY own
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16 THINKING AND WRITING CLEARLY •
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18 THINKING AND WRITING CLEARLY Tip
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20 THINKING AND WRITING CLEARLY g)
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22 DEFINITIONS • The referent of
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24 DEFINITIONS is too wide because
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26 DEFINITIONS sophisticated sense.
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28 DEFINITIONS 3.5.2 Definition by
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30 DEFINITIONS 3.2 Evaluate these d
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34 NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONDITI
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42 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS ambiguous. A
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44 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS change of di
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46 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS BILLY : All
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48 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS absolve anyb
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50 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS 5.4 GOBBLEDY
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52 LINGUISTIC PITFALLS c) Our cooki
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54 TRUTH false, but we would never
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56 TRUTH matter of linguistic conve
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58 TRUTH i) If Rebecca is Shannon's
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60 BASIC LOGIC 7.1.1 Consistency A
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62 BASIC LOGIC Q, or equivalently,
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64 BASIC LOGIC "or both", or "but n
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66 BASIC LOGIC • PiffQ. • P whe
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70 IDENTIFYING ARGUMENTS of opinion
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72 IDENTIFYING ARGUMENTS it easier
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76 VALID AND SOUND ARGUMENTS This s
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78 VALID AND SOUND ARGUMENTS genera
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80 VALID AND SOUND ARGUMENTS 9.2.5
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82 VALID AND SOUND ARGUMENTS If P t
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84 VALID AND SOUND ARGUMENTS 9.4 SO
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88 INDUCTIVE REASONING highly confi
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90 INDUCTIVE REASONING elusion give
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92 INDUCTIVE REASONING tive strengt
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96 ARGUMENT MAPPING Every person is
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98 ARGUMENT MAPPING of arguments ex
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100 ARGUMENT MAPPING elusion. Separ
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102 ARGUMENT MAPPING Homosexuality
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104 ARGUMENT MAPPING a) High school
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108 ARGUMENT ANALYSIS ing. It will
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110 ARGUMENT ANALYSIS As an example
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112 ARGUMENT ANALYSIS b) We should
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114 SCIENTIFIC REASONING or perhaps
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116 SCIENTIFIC REASONING crease our
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118 SCIENTIFIC REASONING the planet
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120 SCIENTIFIC REASONING dollars in
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122 SCIENTIFIC REASONING report. Ho
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124 SCIENTIFIC REASONING 13.3 Some
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126 MILLS METHODS 14.1 THE METHOD O
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128 MILLS METHODS 14.3 THE JOINT ME
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130 MILLS METHODS feet is not among
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132 MILLS METHODS d) Situation Cand
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134 REASONING ABOUT CAUSATION Simil
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136 REASONING ABOUT CAUSATION suffe
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138 REASONING ABOUT CAUSATION immor
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140 REASONING ABOUT CAUSATION i) Te
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142 DIAGRAMS OF CAUSAL PROCESSES an
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144 DIAGRAMS OF CAUSAL PROCESSES co
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146 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY 17.1
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148 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY •
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150 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY A mi
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152 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY On t
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154 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY 17.4
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156 STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY 4,12
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160 THINKING ABOUT VALUES It is the
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162 THINKING ABOUT VALUES Once thes
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164 THINKING ABOUT VALUES is flat o
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166 THINKING ABOUT VALUES will be c
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168 THINKING ABOUT VALUES Similarly
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170 THINKING ABOUT VALUES 18.2 M Ou
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174 FALLACIES One further clarifica
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176 FALLACIES All circular argument
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178 FALLACIES 19.4.1 Irrelevant res
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180 FALLACIES the question. Murder,
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182 FALLACIES • Non sequitur: Non
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184 FALLACIES g) All my Facebook fr
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186 COGNITIVE BIASES These question
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188 COGNITIVE BIASES • Subjects w
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190 COGNITIVE BIASES more likely to
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192 COGNITIVE BIASES - Avoid framin
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196 ANALOGICAL REASONING a big appe
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Page 214 and 215: 202 MAKING RATIONAL DECISIONS 22.1
Page 216 and 217: 204 MAKING RATIONAL DECISIONS So if
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Page 222 and 223: 210 MAKING RATIONAL DECISIONS about
Page 224 and 225: 212 MAKING RATIONAL DECISIONS EXERC
Page 228 and 229: 216 WHAT IS CREATIVITY? The observa
Page 230 and 231: 218 WHAT IS CREATIVITY? Step 1 : Pr
Page 232 and 233: 220 WHAT IS CREATIVITY? remedy our
Page 236 and 237: 224 CREATIVE THINKING HABITS made o
Page 238 and 239: 226 CREATIVE THINKING HABITS materi
Page 240 and 241: 228 CREATIVE THINKING HABITS orate
Page 242 and 243: 230 CREATIVE THINKING HABITS Ellis
Page 246 and 247: 234 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES any of t
Page 248 and 249: 236 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES SOLUTION
Page 254 and 255: 242 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES 1 l.l.h
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Page 258 and 259: 246 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES 13.4 One
Page 262 and 263: 250 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES 17.3.d T
Page 264 and 265: 252 SOLUTIONS TO EXERCISES 19.2.e F
Page 268 and 269: Bibliography Ackerman, J., Nocera,
Page 270 and 271: 258 BIBLIOGRAPHY McRae, C, Cherin,
Page 272 and 273: 260 BIBLIOGRAPHY Wolf, G. (1996). S
Page 274: 262 INDEX consequentialist reasonin
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