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Competition in the Irish Private Health Insurance Market

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Figure 2: Annual Change <strong>in</strong> PHI membership, 1973-2006<br />

PHI: Annual change (open enrolment) (%)<br />

25%<br />

20%<br />

15%<br />

10%<br />

5%<br />

0%<br />

-5%<br />

1973<br />

1975<br />

1977<br />

1979<br />

1981<br />

1983<br />

1985<br />

1987<br />

1989<br />

1991<br />

1993<br />

1995<br />

1997<br />

1999<br />

2001<br />

2003<br />

2005<br />

NB: The large <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> demand <strong>in</strong> 1988 was mostly accounted for by <strong>the</strong><br />

new VHI “Plan P”, which only provides cover for <strong>the</strong> €60 daily public bed <strong>in</strong>patient<br />

charge.<br />

Determ<strong>in</strong>ants of Demand for PHI <strong>in</strong> Ireland<br />

2.28 A view has been expressed recently with<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>dustry that <strong>the</strong><br />

proportion of <strong>in</strong>sured is unlikely to cont<strong>in</strong>ue to rise <strong>in</strong> a similar fashion<br />

to <strong>the</strong> recent past or <strong>in</strong>deed compared to <strong>the</strong> long-term trend.<br />

However, o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>dustry leaders have disputed this view. O<strong>the</strong>r views<br />

have emphasised <strong>the</strong> probability of a high rate of growth <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> total<br />

value of premium <strong>in</strong>come.<br />

2.29 Economic research <strong>in</strong>dicates that <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong> determ<strong>in</strong>ants of demand for<br />

PHI <strong>in</strong> Ireland <strong>in</strong> terms of a time trend would appear to be; 14<br />

• Wait<strong>in</strong>g lists <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> public system and perceptions of <strong>the</strong> quality of<br />

public system care.<br />

• Employment growth,<br />

• Real <strong>in</strong>comes,<br />

• Price of PHI<br />

The long established nature of and <strong>the</strong> availability under open<br />

enrolment of PHI appear to be a positive <strong>in</strong>fluence on <strong>the</strong> relatively<br />

high level of penetration of PHI <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> population.<br />

2.30 Occupational group and marital status are also significant <strong>in</strong>fluences,<br />

accord<strong>in</strong>g to economic research and survey research by <strong>the</strong> Authority.<br />

Members of <strong>the</strong> professional occupational class tend to have a high<br />

probability of hav<strong>in</strong>g PHI. Individuals who are <strong>in</strong> a clerical occupation<br />

or are married also have a higher probability of hav<strong>in</strong>g PHI.<br />

2.31 In economic terms, <strong>the</strong> trend <strong>in</strong> employment and <strong>the</strong> trend <strong>in</strong> real<br />

<strong>in</strong>comes can be comb<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong>to a s<strong>in</strong>gle trend of real GNP. The trend <strong>in</strong><br />

14 Nolan and Wiley (2000), “<strong>Private</strong> Practice <strong>in</strong> <strong>Irish</strong> Public Hospitals”. ESRI General Research Series<br />

175..<br />

28

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