ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

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weapons countries) not to reprocess spent fuel to produce plutonium for weapons. To secure the threshold countries' support for effective non-proliferation conditions, international safeguards should discriminate as little as possible between nuclear and non-nuclear weapons countries. This symmetry of obligations might even be formalized in a new nonproliferation treaty to replace the present NPT70 It is possible to entertain such possibilities for limiting the dangers of proliferation because plutonium recycling technologies are not economic and may never be needed, largely because of progress in and future prospects for the more efficient use of energy. Conclusion Precisely what combination of policies is needed to implement end-use energy strategies and how best to carry out these policies cannot be known a priori. Different approaches will have to be tried and modified in light of experience. But what is clear is that the required effort probably involves only the coordinated use of familiar policy instruments. The creation of a new world order does not appear to be a The creation of a new world order does not appear to be a precondition for bringing about a global energy future radically different from what is usually projected. precondition for bringing about a global energy future radically different from what is usually projected. The energy future we have outlined here is not the ultimate answer to the world's energy problems. Eventually, the world will need economical and environmentally benign renewable energy sources—the development of which will take time and ingenuity. But this future would give our children and grandchildren a world free of draconian energy-production regimes and, we hope, a world sufficiently prosperous and peaceful to allow them to work out longterm solutions to energy problems. It should give them a little breathing space and some room to maneuver. Jose Goldemberg is President of the University of Sao Paulo in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Thomas B. Johansson is Professor of Energy Systems Analysis, Environmental Studies Program at the University of Lund in Lund, Sweden. Amulya K. N. Reddy is Chairman, Department of Management Studies at the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore, India. Robert H. Williams is Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Energy and Environmental Studies at Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA. 108
Notes 1. The World Bank, World Development Report 1984 (Oxford, New York, and Toronto: Oxford University Press, 1984). 2. R.H. Williams, "A Low Energy Future for the United States," Energy, the International Journal, in press. 3. The World Bank, The Energy Transition in Developing Countries (Washington, D.C., 1983). 4. H. Tsuchiya, "Energy Efficiency of Refrigerators in Japan," Research Institute for Systems Technologies, Tokyo, 1982. 5. C.A. Berg, "Energy Conservation in Industry: the Present Approach, the Future Opportunities," report to the President's Council on Environmental Quality, Washington, D.C., 1979; and R.M. Solow, "Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(1957): 312-320. 6. S. Baldwin, et al., "Improved Woodburning Cookstoves: Signs of Success," Ambio, vol. 14, no. 4-5(1985): 288-292; and S. Baldwin, Biotnass Stoves: Engineering Design, Development, and Dissemination (Washington, D.C.: World Resources Institute, forthcoming). 7. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "International Energy Outlook 1985, with Projections to 1995," U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C., March 1986. 8. The World Bank, The Energy Transition in Developing Countries. 9. B. Bolin, et al., eds., The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems, SCOPE 29 (Chichester, New York, Brisbane, Toronto, and Singapore: John Wiley & Sons, 1986). 10. D. Albright and H.A. Feiveson, "Why Recycle Plutonium?" Science 235(March 27, 1987): 1555-1556; and D. Albright and H.A. Feiveson, "Plutonium Recycle and the Problem of Nuclear Proliferation," PU/ CEES 206, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, April 1986. 11. Energy Policy Project, A Time to Choose: America's Energy Future (Cambridge: Ballinger, 1974). 12. W. Haefele, et al., Energy in a Finite World—A Global Systems Analysis (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Ballinger, 1981). 13. World Energy Conference. Energy 2000- 2020: World Prospects and Regional Stresses, J.R. Frisch, ed. (London: Graham & Trotman, 1983). 14. J. Ogden and R.K. Williams, "The Prospects for Solar Hydrogen in an Energy- 109
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ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD (iii
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Kathleen Courrier Publications Dire
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V. Changing the Political Economy o
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Foreword The 1970s saw nothing less
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The Energy Crisis Revisited The sha
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Table 1. Net Oil Imports and Their
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I. Some Surprises on the Demand Sid
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Figure 3. Cross-Section of a "Stres
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Table 2. Pre-Energy Crisis Trends i
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Figure 6. The Rapidly Changing Tech
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Figure 8. A High-Efficiency Wood St
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Figure 9. Alternative Projections o
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II. A Closer Look at the Energy Pro
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substitutes exist for fueling autom
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Tanzania. Each year human overuse l
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Higher CO 2 concentrations in the a
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would also buy time for the develop
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Figure 12. OECD Primary Energy Dema
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Figure 14. Primary Energy Consumpti
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might ensue. In short, the Middle E
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IV. Behind the Numbers E nergy is o
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Figure 15. Sectoral Distribution of
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Figure 17. Trends in the Apparent C
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containing less material per dollar
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Figure 20. The Material Intensity o
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Figure 21. Final Energy Intensity V
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Figure 23. Final Energy Intensity V
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many different technological possib
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Table 4. Distribution of Petroleum
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Table 5. Continued e. The average f
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Detailed measurements in the late 1
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Page 65 and 66: Table 7. Final Energy Use in the Re
Page 67 and 68: Table 8. Oil Use by Automobiles in
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Page 71 and 72: Table 10. Continued d. The 39-kilow
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Page 77 and 78: Table 12. Parameters Relating to th
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Page 81 and 82: Table 14. Final Per Capita Energy U
Page 83 and 84: Table 16. Alternative Scenarios for
Page 85 and 86: Table 18. Alternative Final Energy
Page 87 and 88: Table 20. Activity Levels for a Hyp
Page 89 and 90: Table 21. Continued g. A 25 percent
Page 91 and 92: Figure 28. Final Energy Use Per Cap
Page 93 and 94: V. Changing the Political Economy o
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Page 107 and 108: Efforts to modernize bioenergy woul
Page 109 and 110: Table 24. Expenditures of Multilate
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Page 117 and 118: 35. H.S. Geller, The Potential for
Page 119 and 120: Appendix A Top-Down Representation
Page 121 and 122: Figure A-l A Top-Down Representatio
Page 123 and 124: plausible expectations about energy
Page 125 and 126: World Resources Institute 1735 New
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