ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

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Figure 26. The Cost of Driving Versus Automotive Fuel Economy 3 3 §.2 ^ C C 41 "-C W 00 3 ki SB 2^ 8J.S O (0 £Q Dei o U Q U > H i« I I I Miles Per Gallon (United States) 50 I I I I 70 I "3! o 3 •;; 2 u -a s j » O t r 90 40 -30 -20 u Base Vehicle Purchase Price ($7,000) Vehicle Fees and Taxes _. Incremental Price • for Improvements c
million autos in developing countries in 2000 with this average fuel economy, the corresponding fuel use would be 1.4 mbd, only 40 percent higher than in 1982, despite a 180 percent increase in the number of cars. (See Table 9.) With 533 million autos worldwide in 2000 getting 48 mpg (4.9 lhk), global fuel use by cars would be about 6.7 mbd, 2.9 mbd less than in 1982. This reduction approximately equals the 2.8 mbd that FAO estimates is needed to double agricultural production in developing countries by the year 2000. 46 It is doubtful, though, that market forces alone would quickly lead manufacturers to produce and consumers to buy these highly efficient cars. For one thing, consumers would probably not enjoy significant direct economic benefits by buying such a car. If the cost of owning and operating a car would remain essentially constant over the entire range from 30 mpg (7.9 lhk) to 90 mpg (2.6 lhk), then market forces certainly won't promote high fuel economy, because few consumers will pay more initially in return for savings in operating costs. Hence, market forces might push consumers to buy cars with fuel economies up to about 30 mpg (7.9 lhk), but not much beyond. Even if the von Hippel-Levi estimates of the cost of fuel economy improvements prove high, market forces may still provide only a weak incentive to seek high fuel economy, because for highly efficient cars, fuel costs represent a tiny fraction of the total cost of owning and operating a car. (See Figure 26.) The value of fuel-efficient automobiles to society at large is much more clear-cut: they would reduce oil imports, help keep the world oil prices from rising, and promote global security. In addition, if developing countries require their own car manufacturers to produce highly efficient cars, they would become more competitive in global car markets. The Hyundai Excel, a high-quality, low-cost subcompact car recently introduced in North American markets from Korea, is proving to be a strong competitor to U.S., Japanese, and Western European manufacturers. Brazil and Taiwan are also evolving into competitive, world-class car manufacturers. If these countries become not only automobile exporters but also exporters of highly efficient cars, they could promote the use of such cars in industrialized countries and enjoy the benefits of the lower world oil prices resulting from oil savings there. Fuel savings front more efficient cars could be used to double agricultural production in developing countries by the year 2000. Steelmaking and Technological Leapfrogging. About five sixths of all steel is produced in industrialized countries, where it accounts for a significant fraction of manufacturing energy use, for example, one sixth in Sweden and one seventh in the United States. THE TECHNOLOGICAL POSSIBILITIES Energy efficiency improvements have been pursued throughout the history of steelmaking, as is indicated by changing coking coal requirements for the blast furnace, the single largest energy user in the industry. In a blast furnace, hot air is blown through a stack of pieces of coke and chunks of iron ore and oxygen is transferred from the iron ore to the carbon, producing a combustible blast furnace and liquid pig iron, which is removed from the bottom. In 1804, about 5.5 tonnes of coking coal were required to produce a tonne of pig iron in England. The requirements in the United States had been reduced to 1.6 tonnes by 1913 and 0.9 tonnes by 1972. Besides the energy needed for blast furnace operation, additional energy is required for other steps in conventional steelmaking: ore preparation and coke manufacture, operation of 67
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ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD (iii
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Kathleen Courrier Publications Dire
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V. Changing the Political Economy o
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Foreword The 1970s saw nothing less
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The Energy Crisis Revisited The sha
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Table 1. Net Oil Imports and Their
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I. Some Surprises on the Demand Sid
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Figure 3. Cross-Section of a "Stres
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Table 2. Pre-Energy Crisis Trends i
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Figure 6. The Rapidly Changing Tech
Page 21 and 22: Figure 8. A High-Efficiency Wood St
Page 23 and 24: Figure 9. Alternative Projections o
Page 25 and 26: II. A Closer Look at the Energy Pro
Page 27 and 28: substitutes exist for fueling autom
Page 29 and 30: Tanzania. Each year human overuse l
Page 31 and 32: Higher CO 2 concentrations in the a
Page 33 and 34: would also buy time for the develop
Page 35 and 36: Figure 12. OECD Primary Energy Dema
Page 37 and 38: Figure 14. Primary Energy Consumpti
Page 39 and 40: might ensue. In short, the Middle E
Page 41 and 42: IV. Behind the Numbers E nergy is o
Page 43 and 44: Figure 15. Sectoral Distribution of
Page 45 and 46: Figure 17. Trends in the Apparent C
Page 47 and 48: containing less material per dollar
Page 49 and 50: Figure 20. The Material Intensity o
Page 51 and 52: Figure 21. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 53 and 54: Figure 23. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 55 and 56: many different technological possib
Page 57 and 58: Table 4. Distribution of Petroleum
Page 59 and 60: Table 5. Continued e. The average f
Page 61 and 62: Detailed measurements in the late 1
Page 63 and 64: Table 6. Energy Performance of Refr
Page 65 and 66: Table 7. Final Energy Use in the Re
Page 67 and 68: Table 8. Oil Use by Automobiles in
Page 69 and 70: the next several decades was 37 mpg
Page 71: Table 10. Continued d. The 39-kilow
Page 75 and 76: (the combined production of heat an
Page 77 and 78: Table 12. Parameters Relating to th
Page 79 and 80: Table 13. Final Energy Use Scenario
Page 81 and 82: Table 14. Final Per Capita Energy U
Page 83 and 84: Table 16. Alternative Scenarios for
Page 85 and 86: Table 18. Alternative Final Energy
Page 87 and 88: Table 20. Activity Levels for a Hyp
Page 89 and 90: Table 21. Continued g. A 25 percent
Page 91 and 92: Figure 28. Final Energy Use Per Cap
Page 93 and 94: V. Changing the Political Economy o
Page 95 and 96: are controlled to protect the poor,
Page 97 and 98: plementing social goals. Far more i
Page 99 and 100: energy performance targets. Such ta
Page 101 and 102: Of course, energy utilities won't b
Page 103 and 104: The era of energy-demand consciousn
Page 105 and 106: more difficult to implement in deve
Page 107 and 108: Efforts to modernize bioenergy woul
Page 109 and 110: Table 24. Expenditures of Multilate
Page 111 and 112: support projects need not rely much
Page 113 and 114: These "threshold" countries are not
Page 115 and 116: Notes 1. The World Bank, World Deve
Page 117 and 118: 35. H.S. Geller, The Potential for
Page 119 and 120: Appendix A Top-Down Representation
Page 121 and 122: Figure A-l A Top-Down Representatio
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plausible expectations about energy
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World Resources Institute 1735 New
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