ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Table 9. The Automobile Population: Historical Data and Projections Developing Countries Latin Industrialized Countries Eastern Africa America Asia Subtotal OECD Europe World Historical Data (millions) Fraction in Developing Countries 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1975 7.34 25.60 11.57 44.59 7.45 24.78 10.11 42.34 6.98 23.35 9.92 40.25 6.64 21.17 9.18 36.99 6.33 18.70 8.25 33.28 5.85 17.21 8.01 31.07 5.26 16.29 6.65 28.20 4.92 15.50 6.86 27.28 4.34 13.45 5.52 23.31 277.83 270.82 258.44 257.59 253.01 247.55 240.43 232.71 216.68 22.00 21.20 20.08 18.96 17.09 15.31 14.27 12.58 10.10 344.50 334.55 318.77 313.54 303.38 293.93 282.90 272.57 250.09 0.129 0.127 0.126 0.118 0.110 0.106 0.100 0.100 0.093 Growth Rates 1977-1984 (percent per year) 5.9 7.4 7.8 7.3 2.6 8.3 3.4 Projections to the Year '. >000 (millions) MIT Study 3 OECD Study 123.6 16 57 27 100 362.8 383 49.6 46 536 529 0.230 0.189 Averages 111.8 372.9 47.8 532.5 0.210 Growth Rates 1984-2000 (percent per year) MIT Study OECD Study Average 6.6 5.2 5.9 1.7 2.0 1.9 5.2 4.7 5.0 2.8 2.7 2.8 Source: For MIT study: Massachusetts Institute of Technology International Automobile Program, The Future of the Automobile (CambridgeMassachusetts: MIT Press, 1984). For OECD study: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Long Term Outlookfor the World Automobile Industry (Paris,1983). a. For non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development regions the projections in this study are actually for developing countries excluding China) and for centrally planned economies (including China). 62
the next several decades was 37 mpg (6.4 lhk) because of its estimate that the total cost of owning and operating a car would rise sharply at higher fuel economy levels. 37 Soon after the study was published, however, the more efficient Volkswagen Rabbit diesel and the Honda City Car were introduced. In the last couple years, the number of fuel-efficient models available has grown considerably. (See Table 10.) The most energyefficient model available in the United States at this writing is the four-passenger, gasolinefueled Sprint, which has an estimated on-theroad fuel economy of 57 mpg (4.1 lhk), some 50 percent higher than the NAS estimate of the "technological limit." 38 Even these impressive new cars exploit only a fraction of the presently available technology for improving fuel economy. Most of the improvements to date are from reducing weight through use of lightweight materials, reducing rolling resistance through radial tires, reducing aerodynamic drag, and using pre-chamber diesel engine and lean-burn gasoline engines. Options for making further gains with present technology include shifting to direct-injection diesel engines (the kind used in trucks) or spark-ignited, direct-injection diesel engines (which have multifuel capability), introducing the continuously variable transmission (CVT), introducing the feature of engine-off during idle and coast, using lightweight materials more extensively, and further reducing aerodynamic drag. Several prototype cars indicate what can be achieved using some of these technologies. (See Table 10.) The most recently introduced prototype, the Toyota AXV, a four- to five-passenger lightweight car with a direct-injection diesel engine, CVT, and a drag coefficient of 0.26, gets 98 mpg (2.4 lhk). (See Figure 4.) But doesn't good fuel economy imply a sluggish vehicle that will make highway entry or passing difficult or dangerous? Not necessarily. The Volvo Light Component Project 2000 vehicle gets 65 mpg (3.6 lhk) but requires only 11 seconds to accelerate from 0 to 60 mph (96 km/ hour), compared to 17 seconds for the popular automatic Chevrolet Cavalier, which has a fuel economy of only 28 mpg (8.4 lhk). 39 (See Table 10.) Doesn't high fuel economy mean a tiny, cramped vehicle? Again, not necessarily. Most of the new highly efficient cars and prototypes listed carry four or five passengers comfortably. Aren't fuel-efficient cars unsafe? Here too, good engineering design can improve the structural strength and safety of even very small cars. For example, the lightweight (707 kg) Volvo LCP 2000 can withstand 35-mph (56-km/hour) front and side impacts and 30-mph (48-km/hour) rear impacts—meeting stricter safety standards than do cars currently sold in the United States. 40 Moreover, advanced technology still under development will make it possible to build "heavy" fuel-efficient cars, such as the Cummins/NASA Lewis car design. (See Table 10.) This 80-mpg (2.9-lhk) car, equipped with a CVT and an advanced multifuel-capable, direct-injection adiabatic diesel engine and turbocompounding, would weigh 1,360 kg, approximately the average weight of new cars sold in the United States today. One problem posed by diesel engines is that they emit on average about 100 times the weight of particulates produced by gasoline engines of comparable performance. However, Mercedes Benz and Volkswagen have developed emission-control devices that permit diesel cars to meet the strict 1986 California particulate limit of 0.2 grams per mile. 41 Moreover, the use of diesel fuel is not necessary to realize high fuel economy. Several highly efficient cars have gasoline engines, and sparkassisted diesel engines can have the fuel economy of diesels operating on gasoline or alternative fuels (e.g., ethanol or methanol). (See Table 10.) Often the technologies added to cars to improve fuel economy cost more than the tech- 63
Page 1 and 2:
ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD (iii
Page 3 and 4:
Kathleen Courrier Publications Dire
Page 5 and 6:
V. Changing the Political Economy o
Page 7 and 8:
Foreword The 1970s saw nothing less
Page 9 and 10:
The Energy Crisis Revisited The sha
Page 11 and 12:
Table 1. Net Oil Imports and Their
Page 13 and 14:
I. Some Surprises on the Demand Sid
Page 15 and 16:
Figure 3. Cross-Section of a "Stres
Page 17 and 18: Table 2. Pre-Energy Crisis Trends i
Page 19 and 20: Figure 6. The Rapidly Changing Tech
Page 21 and 22: Figure 8. A High-Efficiency Wood St
Page 23 and 24: Figure 9. Alternative Projections o
Page 25 and 26: II. A Closer Look at the Energy Pro
Page 27 and 28: substitutes exist for fueling autom
Page 29 and 30: Tanzania. Each year human overuse l
Page 31 and 32: Higher CO 2 concentrations in the a
Page 33 and 34: would also buy time for the develop
Page 35 and 36: Figure 12. OECD Primary Energy Dema
Page 37 and 38: Figure 14. Primary Energy Consumpti
Page 39 and 40: might ensue. In short, the Middle E
Page 41 and 42: IV. Behind the Numbers E nergy is o
Page 43 and 44: Figure 15. Sectoral Distribution of
Page 45 and 46: Figure 17. Trends in the Apparent C
Page 47 and 48: containing less material per dollar
Page 49 and 50: Figure 20. The Material Intensity o
Page 51 and 52: Figure 21. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 53 and 54: Figure 23. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 55 and 56: many different technological possib
Page 57 and 58: Table 4. Distribution of Petroleum
Page 59 and 60: Table 5. Continued e. The average f
Page 61 and 62: Detailed measurements in the late 1
Page 63 and 64: Table 6. Energy Performance of Refr
Page 65 and 66: Table 7. Final Energy Use in the Re
Page 67: Table 8. Oil Use by Automobiles in
Page 71 and 72: Table 10. Continued d. The 39-kilow
Page 73 and 74: million autos in developing countri
Page 75 and 76: (the combined production of heat an
Page 77 and 78: Table 12. Parameters Relating to th
Page 79 and 80: Table 13. Final Energy Use Scenario
Page 81 and 82: Table 14. Final Per Capita Energy U
Page 83 and 84: Table 16. Alternative Scenarios for
Page 85 and 86: Table 18. Alternative Final Energy
Page 87 and 88: Table 20. Activity Levels for a Hyp
Page 89 and 90: Table 21. Continued g. A 25 percent
Page 91 and 92: Figure 28. Final Energy Use Per Cap
Page 93 and 94: V. Changing the Political Economy o
Page 95 and 96: are controlled to protect the poor,
Page 97 and 98: plementing social goals. Far more i
Page 99 and 100: energy performance targets. Such ta
Page 101 and 102: Of course, energy utilities won't b
Page 103 and 104: The era of energy-demand consciousn
Page 105 and 106: more difficult to implement in deve
Page 107 and 108: Efforts to modernize bioenergy woul
Page 109 and 110: Table 24. Expenditures of Multilate
Page 111 and 112: support projects need not rely much
Page 113 and 114: These "threshold" countries are not
Page 115 and 116: Notes 1. The World Bank, World Deve
Page 117 and 118: 35. H.S. Geller, The Potential for
Page 119 and 120:
Appendix A Top-Down Representation
Page 121 and 122:
Figure A-l A Top-Down Representatio
Page 123 and 124:
plausible expectations about energy
Page 125 and 126:
World Resources Institute 1735 New
show all

ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?