ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

Table 18. Alternative Final Energy Use Scenarios for the U.S. Transportation Sector
Transport Mode
Fuel
1980
Electricity
(Exajoules
Fuel
per year)
2020
Electricity
Automobiles and Light Trucks
Commercial Air Passenger Transport
Intercity Truck Freight
Rail Freight
Other
12.3
1.6 b
1.6 d
0.6 f
4.7
_
_
_
-
-
3.5 a
3.5 C
1.9 e
0.7 s
4.7
_
-
-
0.2 s
-
Total
20.8 14.3 0.2
a. It is assumed that the number of light vehicles per person aged 16 and over is 0.80 (compared
to 0.78 in 1980), that the average light vehicle is driven 17,000 kilometers (10,600
miles) per year, the same amount as in 1980, and that the average fuel economy of light
vehicles is increased to 3.1 liters per 100 kilometers (75 miles per gallon) by 2020.
b. For 420.6 billion person-kilometers at 3.82 megajoules per person-kilometer.
c. It is assumed that revenues grow 1.64 times as fast as GNP, continuing the trend of the
1970s; revenue per people-kilometer remains constant at the 1980 level; and the average
energy intensity of air travel is reduced in half between 1980 and 2020.
d. For 825 billion tonne-kilometer of intercity truck freight at 2.0 megajoules per tonne-kilometer.
e. It is assumed that the volume of truck plus rail freight grows 0.86 times as fast as gross
national product, continuing the trend of the 1970s; the truck-rail mix of freight doesn't
change; and the energy intensity of truck freight is reduced in half between 1980 and 2020.
f. For 1,345 billion tonne-kilometer at 470 kilajoules per tonne-kilometer.
g. It is assumed that, by 2020, one half of rail freight is electrified and that the final energy intensity
of electric rail freight is one third of that for diesel rail freight.
Probably the greatest uncertainty is how
far the centrally planned industrialized
countries of Eastern Europe and the
Soviet Union will pursue energy
efficiency.
on the market today. None requires technological
breakthroughs, and all will probably be
cost-effective at present energy prices.
To complete the "thought experiment," multiply
each activity level in Table 20 by the corresponding
specific energy requirement in
Table 21, and then sum them up. (See Table 22
and Figure 28.) The results are remarkable. In
this hypothetical developing country, people
enjoy a Western European standard of living
with a total final energy demand of about 1
kW per capita, only slightly more than at
present.
How is this possible? Great improvements in
living standards can be achieved without increasing
energy use much, in part by adopting
the more energy-efficient technologies now
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