ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

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Table 13. Continued Consumption of Goods and Up 100 Percent Present Best Technology Services Advanced Technology Fuel Electricity Total (Petajoules Fuel per year b ) Electricity Total Residential 0 Commercial 11 Transportation Domestic International Bunkers Industry Manufacturing Agriculture, Forestry, and Construction 78 11 210 40 353 54 73 41 13 _ 191 29 151 54 223 40 544 83 50 5 160 29 275 49 58 38 9 - 175 19 108 43 169 29 450 68 Total 751 347 1098 569 299 868 our scenario is how far the centrally planned industrialized countries of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union will pursue energy efficiency. To date at least, they have adopted few energyefficiency improvements. However, pressures to use energy efficiently are mounting. Oil production in the Soviet Union has peaked and will probably decline slowly in the future. The easy-to-exploit coal resources in the western part of the Soviet Union are being exhausted, so that coal production is shifting to remote Siberian sources. And even before the Chernobyl accident, nuclear power was proving to be more costly than expected and its expansion was well behind schedule. Moreover, because average per capita energy use in these countries is about the same as in market-oriented industrialized countries, and the level of amenities made possible by energy are probably higher in the West than in the East, it may be true that what can be achieved in a few countries such as Sweden and the United States is feasible in any industrialized country. Energy Use in Developing Countries—A Thought Experiment The energy demand situation is completely different for the three quarters of the world's population who live in developing countries and account for one third of world energy use. At present, per capita final energy use in developing countries averages about 0.9 kW, of which about 0.4 kW is non-commercial energy, most of it used by the two thirds of the population who live in rural areas. Current patterns of energy end use in various developing countries are not nearly as well-understood as those in industrialized countries. The available data are not nearly as 74
Table 14. Final Per Capita Energy Use Scenarios for Sweden a With Consumption of Goods and Services Up 50 percent With Consumption of Goods and Services Up 100 percent 1975 vanced [inology Capita) Present Best Technology Advanced Technology Residential 13 Commercial 0 Transportation Domestic International Bunkers 1.36 0.53 0.89 0.18 0.48 0.19 0.74 0.12 0.34 0.15 0.55 0.10 0.58 0.21 0.85 0.15 0.41 0.16 0.65 0.11 Industry Manufacturing Agriculture, Forestry, and Construction 2.09 0.30 1.70 0.23 1.42 0.19 2.08 0.31 1.72 0.26 Total 5.34 3.48 2.75 4.19 3.31 a. The population is assumed to be 8.3 million in all cases. The per capita gross domestic product in 1975 was $8,320. b. Heated residential floor space is assumed to increase from 36 square meters per capita in 1975 to 55 (73) square meters per capita with a 50 percent (100 percent) increase in per capita consumption of goods and services. c. Commercial buildings' floor space is assumed to increase from 12.7 to 16.4 (20.2) square meters per capita for a 50 percent (100 percent) increase in per capita consumption of goods and services. comprehensive, and it is inherently more difficult to project long-range energy demand for rapidly industrializing countries than for mature industrialized countries where most energy-intensive activities are growing only slowly or not at all. In the face of such problems, a different approach for estimating long-term energy requirements in developing countries makes sense. Imagine for argument's sake a developing country having a standard of living roughly equal to that in Western Europe, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand in the late 1970s. 49 (See Table 20.) In other words, the average family lives in a reasonably well-constructed house with running water, plumbing for sewage, an easy-to-use cooking fuel (such as gas), electric lights, and all basic appliances— refrigerator-freezer, a water heater, a clothes washer, and a television set. There is one automobile for every 1.2 households on aver- 75
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ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD (iii
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Kathleen Courrier Publications Dire
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V. Changing the Political Economy o
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Foreword The 1970s saw nothing less
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The Energy Crisis Revisited The sha
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Table 1. Net Oil Imports and Their
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I. Some Surprises on the Demand Sid
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Figure 3. Cross-Section of a "Stres
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Table 2. Pre-Energy Crisis Trends i
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Figure 6. The Rapidly Changing Tech
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Figure 8. A High-Efficiency Wood St
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Figure 9. Alternative Projections o
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II. A Closer Look at the Energy Pro
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substitutes exist for fueling autom
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Page 31 and 32: Higher CO 2 concentrations in the a
Page 33 and 34: would also buy time for the develop
Page 35 and 36: Figure 12. OECD Primary Energy Dema
Page 37 and 38: Figure 14. Primary Energy Consumpti
Page 39 and 40: might ensue. In short, the Middle E
Page 41 and 42: IV. Behind the Numbers E nergy is o
Page 43 and 44: Figure 15. Sectoral Distribution of
Page 45 and 46: Figure 17. Trends in the Apparent C
Page 47 and 48: containing less material per dollar
Page 49 and 50: Figure 20. The Material Intensity o
Page 51 and 52: Figure 21. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 53 and 54: Figure 23. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 55 and 56: many different technological possib
Page 57 and 58: Table 4. Distribution of Petroleum
Page 59 and 60: Table 5. Continued e. The average f
Page 61 and 62: Detailed measurements in the late 1
Page 63 and 64: Table 6. Energy Performance of Refr
Page 65 and 66: Table 7. Final Energy Use in the Re
Page 67 and 68: Table 8. Oil Use by Automobiles in
Page 69 and 70: the next several decades was 37 mpg
Page 71 and 72: Table 10. Continued d. The 39-kilow
Page 73 and 74: million autos in developing countri
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Page 77 and 78: Table 12. Parameters Relating to th
Page 79: Table 13. Final Energy Use Scenario
Page 83 and 84: Table 16. Alternative Scenarios for
Page 85 and 86: Table 18. Alternative Final Energy
Page 87 and 88: Table 20. Activity Levels for a Hyp
Page 89 and 90: Table 21. Continued g. A 25 percent
Page 91 and 92: Figure 28. Final Energy Use Per Cap
Page 93 and 94: V. Changing the Political Economy o
Page 95 and 96: are controlled to protect the poor,
Page 97 and 98: plementing social goals. Far more i
Page 99 and 100: energy performance targets. Such ta
Page 101 and 102: Of course, energy utilities won't b
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Page 107 and 108: Efforts to modernize bioenergy woul
Page 109 and 110: Table 24. Expenditures of Multilate
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Page 113 and 114: These "threshold" countries are not
Page 115 and 116: Notes 1. The World Bank, World Deve
Page 117 and 118: 35. H.S. Geller, The Potential for
Page 119 and 120: Appendix A Top-Down Representation
Page 121 and 122: Figure A-l A Top-Down Representatio
Page 123 and 124: plausible expectations about energy
Page 125 and 126: World Resources Institute 1735 New
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