ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

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Figure 27. Final Energy Demand in Sweden for Four Levels of Energy Intensity at 100, 150, Percent of the 1975 Level of Consumption of Goods and Services and 200 2500_ . 10 2000- _ 8 V ^ 1500 _ ....... 150 Actual Level, 1975 6 - 'etajouh 1000- .100 T 1 [HI 53 Per Capita ] 500- L. 0 Average Technology 1990 Forecast Best Advanced of 1975 by National Technology Technology Industrial Board carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere, and the great disparity in commercial energy distribution between rich and poor countries. Per capita final energy consumption could be reduced to 4.3 kW with a 50-percent increase in per capita GNP or to 4.6 kW with a 100-percent increase in per capita GNP if cost-effective, energy-efficient technologies are used. (See Tables 16, 17, 18, and 19.) Because U.S. energy use is currently so high, the projected reduction in aggregate U.S. energy use between 1980 and 2020 is very significant globally—about 0.71 to 0.87 TW-years per year, which is equal to 25 to 30 percent of all energy used in developing countries in 1980. Conclusion Given these results for Sweden and the United States and the broad applicability of the technologies considered in these analyses, it is reasonable to expect that a 50-percent reduction in per capita final energy use, from 4.9 to 2.5 kW, is achievable on average for all industrialized countries between 1980 and 2020, at the same time that standards of living improve significantly. This projection forms the basis for our scenario for industrialized countries. (See Figure 9.) Our analyses for Sweden and the
Table 13. Final Energy Use Scenarios for Sweden a 1975 Consumption of Goods and Services Up 50 Percent Present Best Advanced Technology Technology Fuel Electricity Total Fuel Electricity Total Fuel Electricity Total (Petajoules per year b ) Residential 0 Commercial" 1 Transportation Domestic International Bunkers Industry Manufacturing Agriculture, Forestry, and Construction 295 104 223 47 410 65 61 36 11 137 14 356 140 61 11 234 183 47 32 547 293 79 40 65 39 11 153 21 126 50 36 3 194 137 32 25 446 230 61 37 54 37 7 141 13 90 40 144 25 371 50 Total 1141 259 1400 622 289 911 467 253 720 a. The population is assumed to be 8.3 million in all cases. The per capita gross domestic product in 1975 was $8,320. b. One petajoule equals 10 15 joules. One petajoule per year is equivalent to 448 barrels of oil per day. c. Heated residential floor space is assumed to increase from 36 square meters per capita in 1975 to 55 (73) square meters per capita with a 50 percent (100 percent) increase in per capita consumption of goods and services. d. Commercial buildings' floor space is assumed to increase from 12.7 to 16.4 (20.2) square meters per capita for a 50 percent (100 percent) increase in per capita consumption of goods and services. United States suggest that this scenario would be technically and economically feasible. And although it is not a prediction, it is consistent with plausible values of future energy prices, income elasticities, and price elasticities associated with a 50- to 100-percent increase in per capita GDP between 1980 and 2020. (See Appendix.) As noted, many efficiency improvements will be made automatically as the capital stock grows and turns over. Accordingly, the recent downward trend in per capita energy use in market-oriented industrialized countries is likely to continue. Nevertheless, a 50-percent reduction in per capita energy use will probably not occur unless governments clear away some of the obstacles—market imperfections and other institutional impediments—to exploiting energy efficiency opportunities. Probably the greatest uncertainty legarding 73
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ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD (iii
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Kathleen Courrier Publications Dire
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V. Changing the Political Economy o
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Foreword The 1970s saw nothing less
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The Energy Crisis Revisited The sha
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Table 1. Net Oil Imports and Their
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I. Some Surprises on the Demand Sid
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Figure 3. Cross-Section of a "Stres
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Table 2. Pre-Energy Crisis Trends i
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Figure 6. The Rapidly Changing Tech
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Figure 8. A High-Efficiency Wood St
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Figure 9. Alternative Projections o
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II. A Closer Look at the Energy Pro
Page 27 and 28: substitutes exist for fueling autom
Page 29 and 30: Tanzania. Each year human overuse l
Page 31 and 32: Higher CO 2 concentrations in the a
Page 33 and 34: would also buy time for the develop
Page 35 and 36: Figure 12. OECD Primary Energy Dema
Page 37 and 38: Figure 14. Primary Energy Consumpti
Page 39 and 40: might ensue. In short, the Middle E
Page 41 and 42: IV. Behind the Numbers E nergy is o
Page 43 and 44: Figure 15. Sectoral Distribution of
Page 45 and 46: Figure 17. Trends in the Apparent C
Page 47 and 48: containing less material per dollar
Page 49 and 50: Figure 20. The Material Intensity o
Page 51 and 52: Figure 21. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 53 and 54: Figure 23. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 55 and 56: many different technological possib
Page 57 and 58: Table 4. Distribution of Petroleum
Page 59 and 60: Table 5. Continued e. The average f
Page 61 and 62: Detailed measurements in the late 1
Page 63 and 64: Table 6. Energy Performance of Refr
Page 65 and 66: Table 7. Final Energy Use in the Re
Page 67 and 68: Table 8. Oil Use by Automobiles in
Page 69 and 70: the next several decades was 37 mpg
Page 71 and 72: Table 10. Continued d. The 39-kilow
Page 73 and 74: million autos in developing countri
Page 75 and 76: (the combined production of heat an
Page 77: Table 12. Parameters Relating to th
Page 81 and 82: Table 14. Final Per Capita Energy U
Page 83 and 84: Table 16. Alternative Scenarios for
Page 85 and 86: Table 18. Alternative Final Energy
Page 87 and 88: Table 20. Activity Levels for a Hyp
Page 89 and 90: Table 21. Continued g. A 25 percent
Page 91 and 92: Figure 28. Final Energy Use Per Cap
Page 93 and 94: V. Changing the Political Economy o
Page 95 and 96: are controlled to protect the poor,
Page 97 and 98: plementing social goals. Far more i
Page 99 and 100: energy performance targets. Such ta
Page 101 and 102: Of course, energy utilities won't b
Page 103 and 104: The era of energy-demand consciousn
Page 105 and 106: more difficult to implement in deve
Page 107 and 108: Efforts to modernize bioenergy woul
Page 109 and 110: Table 24. Expenditures of Multilate
Page 111 and 112: support projects need not rely much
Page 113 and 114: These "threshold" countries are not
Page 115 and 116: Notes 1. The World Bank, World Deve
Page 117 and 118: 35. H.S. Geller, The Potential for
Page 119 and 120: Appendix A Top-Down Representation
Page 121 and 122: Figure A-l A Top-Down Representatio
Page 123 and 124: plausible expectations about energy
Page 125 and 126: World Resources Institute 1735 New
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