ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

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Figure A-2. A Top-Down Representation of Our Countries End-Use Energy Demand Scenario for Developing 62020)], in 9_ 8 _ g 7- rH d, D £ 6_ 5 " 4 _ 3_ Key For (a,b,c) a = Income Elasticity b = - Energy Price Elasticity c = Annual Energy Efficiency Improvement Rate (%) ^——» (1.1, 0.7, 1.0) ——.—.- (1.1, l.o' 0.5) (1.4, 0.7, 1.0) (1.4, 1.0, 0.5) / / // y / /' * / / / y / / r / / y / / / / y / y o s R IN rH D (J For y 1 te (Pei rowt O 3 C r- Average 4.9 _ 4.7 „ _ 4.4 -*— _ 4.1 - 3.8 - 3.4 M "*— _ 2.3 Brazil, 1960-82 Thailand, 1960-82 Malaysia, 1960-82 Middle Income Countries, 1960-82 WEC High Scenario Low Income Countries, 1960-82 IIASA High Scenario 2_ v r Price of Energy (2020) Divided by Price of Energy (1972) 1 2 1 1 3 t IIASA Projection For 2030 Each line represents the combinations of per capita gross domestic product and energy price in the year 2020 (relative to 1972 values) consistent with the energy demand scenario developed in Chapter 4 for developing countries, for the indicated values of income elasticities, price elasticities, and the nonpriceinduced energy efficiency improvement rate. 1 4 -«— -•— _ 1.5 WEC Low Scenario IIASA Low Scenario 116
plausible expectations about energy price and GDP growth, if the non-price-induced energyefficiency improvement rate can be in the range 0.5 to 1.0 percent per year. Although the non-price-induced energyefficiency improvement rate is a measure of the public policy effort that would be required to bring about the energy future described in this study, not all this efficiency improvement would have to be public-policy-induced. Energy-efficiency improvements associated with general technological innovations have often been made even when energy prices have been declining, 13 a phenomenon that led IEA/ORAU analysts to include the non-price-induced technological improvement factor in their model for the industrial sector in the first place. 14 At the same time, however, the energyefficiency improvement factor may not represent the full extent of the needed public policy effort if low energy-demand levels were to cause energy prices to stabilize or even fall. In such a case, energy taxes may also be needed to keep gradual upward pressure on final (consumer) prices. 117
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ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD (iii
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Kathleen Courrier Publications Dire
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V. Changing the Political Economy o
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Foreword The 1970s saw nothing less
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The Energy Crisis Revisited The sha
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Table 1. Net Oil Imports and Their
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I. Some Surprises on the Demand Sid
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Figure 3. Cross-Section of a "Stres
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Table 2. Pre-Energy Crisis Trends i
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Figure 6. The Rapidly Changing Tech
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Figure 8. A High-Efficiency Wood St
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Figure 9. Alternative Projections o
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II. A Closer Look at the Energy Pro
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substitutes exist for fueling autom
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Tanzania. Each year human overuse l
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Higher CO 2 concentrations in the a
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would also buy time for the develop
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Figure 12. OECD Primary Energy Dema
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Figure 14. Primary Energy Consumpti
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might ensue. In short, the Middle E
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IV. Behind the Numbers E nergy is o
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Figure 15. Sectoral Distribution of
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Figure 17. Trends in the Apparent C
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containing less material per dollar
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Figure 20. The Material Intensity o
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Figure 21. Final Energy Intensity V
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Figure 23. Final Energy Intensity V
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many different technological possib
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Table 4. Distribution of Petroleum
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Table 5. Continued e. The average f
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Detailed measurements in the late 1
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Table 6. Energy Performance of Refr
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Table 7. Final Energy Use in the Re
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Table 8. Oil Use by Automobiles in
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the next several decades was 37 mpg
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Page 77 and 78: Table 12. Parameters Relating to th
Page 79 and 80: Table 13. Final Energy Use Scenario
Page 81 and 82: Table 14. Final Per Capita Energy U
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Page 85 and 86: Table 18. Alternative Final Energy
Page 87 and 88: Table 20. Activity Levels for a Hyp
Page 89 and 90: Table 21. Continued g. A 25 percent
Page 91 and 92: Figure 28. Final Energy Use Per Cap
Page 93 and 94: V. Changing the Political Economy o
Page 95 and 96: are controlled to protect the poor,
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Page 107 and 108: Efforts to modernize bioenergy woul
Page 109 and 110: Table 24. Expenditures of Multilate
Page 111 and 112: support projects need not rely much
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Page 115 and 116: Notes 1. The World Bank, World Deve
Page 117 and 118: 35. H.S. Geller, The Potential for
Page 119 and 120: Appendix A Top-Down Representation
Page 121: Figure A-l A Top-Down Representatio
Page 125 and 126: World Resources Institute 1735 New
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