ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

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Table 17. Final Energy Use Scenario for the U.S. Residential and Commercial Sectors 8 End Use Space Heat Air Conditioning Central Room (#HH w) Hot Water Refrig/Freezer Freezer Range Dryer Lights Miscellaneous Millions of 1980 Electricity Fuel 14.3 22.2 24.8 26.1 93.0 33.7 44.4 38.3 81.6 66.7 - - 55.3 - - 37.1 11.8 - Units in Use 2020 Electricity 43.4 62.4 19.0 43.4 119.2 119.2 43.4 43.4 119.2 Residential Sector* Fuel 75.8 - - 75.8 - - 75.8 75.8 - Annual Energy Use in Exajoules 1980 2020 Electricity Fuel Electricity Fuel 0.29 0.24 0.09 0.33 0.56 0.16 0.12 0.16 0.29 0.34 6.02 - - 1.64 - - 0.28 0.06 - - 0.19 0.37 0.04 0.14 0.25 0.24 0.12 0.14 0.13 0.34 Total 2.59 8.00 1.96 3.33 Total 1.93 - - 0.67 - - 0.40 0.33 - - Commercial Sector 0 Annual Energy Use in Exajoules Commercial Floor Area Electricity Fuel Electricity Fuel 1980 2020 1980 2020 (billion square meters) 4.23 6.37 2.03 4.34 1.80 1.40 a. In accord with U.S. conventions, final energy use is defined as primary energy use less losses in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. Losses associated with petroleum refining and transport are counted as final energy use by the industrial and transport sectors, respectively. b. Because of a 30 percent increase in the population and a decline in the average household size from 2.8 persons in 1980 to 2.4 persons in 2020 the number of households increases from 82 to 119 million from 1980 to 2020. It is assumed that the amount of heated floor space per capita increases from 50 square meters in 1980 to 58 square meters in 2020. One hundred percent saturation is assumed for the ownership of all major appliances except air-conditioning. The assumption that the ownership level is thus independent of gross national product simplifies the analysis with little loss of generality, because of the already high level of use of major energy-using appliances. Household amenities that are income-sensitive are of little consequence in terms of energy use. For air conditioning the saturation is assumed to be two thirds, because in most parts of the country where it is not yet common, air conditioning is not needed. c. The projection for commercial floor space is based on a regression against service sector employment for the period 1970-1979, which indicates that for a 65 percent increase in service sector employment from 1980 to 2020, there would be a 50 percent increase in commercial floor space. 78
Table 18. Alternative Final Energy Use Scenarios for the U.S. Transportation Sector Transport Mode Fuel 1980 Electricity (Exajoules Fuel per year) 2020 Electricity Automobiles and Light Trucks Commercial Air Passenger Transport Intercity Truck Freight Rail Freight Other 12.3 1.6 b 1.6 d 0.6 f 4.7 _ _ _ - - 3.5 a 3.5 C 1.9 e 0.7 s 4.7 _ - - 0.2 s - Total 20.8 14.3 0.2 a. It is assumed that the number of light vehicles per person aged 16 and over is 0.80 (compared to 0.78 in 1980), that the average light vehicle is driven 17,000 kilometers (10,600 miles) per year, the same amount as in 1980, and that the average fuel economy of light vehicles is increased to 3.1 liters per 100 kilometers (75 miles per gallon) by 2020. b. For 420.6 billion person-kilometers at 3.82 megajoules per person-kilometer. c. It is assumed that revenues grow 1.64 times as fast as GNP, continuing the trend of the 1970s; revenue per people-kilometer remains constant at the 1980 level; and the average energy intensity of air travel is reduced in half between 1980 and 2020. d. For 825 billion tonne-kilometer of intercity truck freight at 2.0 megajoules per tonne-kilometer. e. It is assumed that the volume of truck plus rail freight grows 0.86 times as fast as gross national product, continuing the trend of the 1970s; the truck-rail mix of freight doesn't change; and the energy intensity of truck freight is reduced in half between 1980 and 2020. f. For 1,345 billion tonne-kilometer at 470 kilajoules per tonne-kilometer. g. It is assumed that, by 2020, one half of rail freight is electrified and that the final energy intensity of electric rail freight is one third of that for diesel rail freight. Probably the greatest uncertainty is how far the centrally planned industrialized countries of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union will pursue energy efficiency. on the market today. None requires technological breakthroughs, and all will probably be cost-effective at present energy prices. To complete the "thought experiment," multiply each activity level in Table 20 by the corresponding specific energy requirement in Table 21, and then sum them up. (See Table 22 and Figure 28.) The results are remarkable. In this hypothetical developing country, people enjoy a Western European standard of living with a total final energy demand of about 1 kW per capita, only slightly more than at present. How is this possible? Great improvements in living standards can be achieved without increasing energy use much, in part by adopting the more energy-efficient technologies now 79
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ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD (iii
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Kathleen Courrier Publications Dire
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V. Changing the Political Economy o
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Foreword The 1970s saw nothing less
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The Energy Crisis Revisited The sha
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Table 1. Net Oil Imports and Their
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I. Some Surprises on the Demand Sid
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Figure 3. Cross-Section of a "Stres
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Table 2. Pre-Energy Crisis Trends i
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Figure 6. The Rapidly Changing Tech
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Figure 8. A High-Efficiency Wood St
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Figure 9. Alternative Projections o
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II. A Closer Look at the Energy Pro
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substitutes exist for fueling autom
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Tanzania. Each year human overuse l
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Higher CO 2 concentrations in the a
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Page 35 and 36: Figure 12. OECD Primary Energy Dema
Page 37 and 38: Figure 14. Primary Energy Consumpti
Page 39 and 40: might ensue. In short, the Middle E
Page 41 and 42: IV. Behind the Numbers E nergy is o
Page 43 and 44: Figure 15. Sectoral Distribution of
Page 45 and 46: Figure 17. Trends in the Apparent C
Page 47 and 48: containing less material per dollar
Page 49 and 50: Figure 20. The Material Intensity o
Page 51 and 52: Figure 21. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 53 and 54: Figure 23. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 55 and 56: many different technological possib
Page 57 and 58: Table 4. Distribution of Petroleum
Page 59 and 60: Table 5. Continued e. The average f
Page 61 and 62: Detailed measurements in the late 1
Page 63 and 64: Table 6. Energy Performance of Refr
Page 65 and 66: Table 7. Final Energy Use in the Re
Page 67 and 68: Table 8. Oil Use by Automobiles in
Page 69 and 70: the next several decades was 37 mpg
Page 71 and 72: Table 10. Continued d. The 39-kilow
Page 73 and 74: million autos in developing countri
Page 75 and 76: (the combined production of heat an
Page 77 and 78: Table 12. Parameters Relating to th
Page 79 and 80: Table 13. Final Energy Use Scenario
Page 81 and 82: Table 14. Final Per Capita Energy U
Page 83: Table 16. Alternative Scenarios for
Page 87 and 88: Table 20. Activity Levels for a Hyp
Page 89 and 90: Table 21. Continued g. A 25 percent
Page 91 and 92: Figure 28. Final Energy Use Per Cap
Page 93 and 94: V. Changing the Political Economy o
Page 95 and 96: are controlled to protect the poor,
Page 97 and 98: plementing social goals. Far more i
Page 99 and 100: energy performance targets. Such ta
Page 101 and 102: Of course, energy utilities won't b
Page 103 and 104: The era of energy-demand consciousn
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Page 107 and 108: Efforts to modernize bioenergy woul
Page 109 and 110: Table 24. Expenditures of Multilate
Page 111 and 112: support projects need not rely much
Page 113 and 114: These "threshold" countries are not
Page 115 and 116: Notes 1. The World Bank, World Deve
Page 117 and 118: 35. H.S. Geller, The Potential for
Page 119 and 120: Appendix A Top-Down Representation
Page 121 and 122: Figure A-l A Top-Down Representatio
Page 123 and 124: plausible expectations about energy
Page 125 and 126: World Resources Institute 1735 New
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