ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

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Contents The Energy Crisis Revisited 1 I. Some Surprises on the Demand Side .... 5 A Quiet Revolution in the Making 5 Future Possibilities 6 Relevance to Developing Countries 8 Adding It Up 11 II. A Closer Look at the Energy Problem 17 A Temporary Reprieve for Oil Consumers 17 Energy and Development 19 The Other Energy Crisis 20 The Hidden Costs of Conventional Energy 22 Global Insecurity and Middle East Oil 22 Global Climatic Change and Fossil FuelUse 22 Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Nuclear Power 23 Looking Ahead—Reason for Optimism ... 25 III. Alternative Energy Futures 27 The IIASA/WEC Numbers and Our Numbers: What They Mean 29 Future Energy Demand 29 Future Energy Supplies 31 A More Hopeful Outlook 33 IV. Behind the Numbers 35 A New Approach 35 Structural Shifts in Industrialized Market-Oriented Countries 36 The Growth of the Service Sector.... 36 The Growing Importance of Fabrication and Finishing 36 The Structure of Energy Demand in Developing Countries 41 Energy and Basic Human Needs 43 Energy and Employment Generation 45 Energy for Agriculture 48 Energy Planning as an Instrument of Development 49 Opportunities for Using Commercial Energy More Efficiently 49 Space Heating in Industrialized Countries 51 Appliances in Industrialized and Developing Countries 55 Automobiles Around the <strong>World</strong> 59 Steelmaking and Technological Leapfrogging 67 Case Studies: Sweden and the United States 70 Sweden 71 The United States 71 Conclusion 72 Energy Use in Developing Countries— A Thought Experiment 74
V. Changing the Political Economy of Energy 87 The Role of Markets in End-Use Energy Strategies 88 Market Shortcomings 88 The Importance of the Market in Implementing End-Use Strategies ... 90 Market Intervention in the Present Political Climate 91 Promoting More Efficient Use of Commercial Energy 91 Eliminating Energy Supply Subsidies 91 Rationalizing Energy Prices 92 Improving the Flow of Information ... 92 Targeting Energy Performance 92 Stabilizing Consumer Oil Prices 93 Promoting Comprehensive Energy Service Delivery 94 Making Capital Available for Energy Efficiency Investments 95 Assisting the Poor 95 Promoting Research and Development on Energy End-Uses .. 96 Creating and Maintaining Energy End-Use Data Bases 97 Keeping Score on Conservation Programs 97 Energy and Economic Development 98 Energy Efficiency in the Modern Sectors of Developing Countries .... 98 Energy and Basic Human Needs 99 Energy and Employment Generation 100 Energy for Agriculture 100 Political Feasibility 101 International Actions 102 Helping Developing Countries Become More Self-Reliant 102 Coping with Global Problems 105 Conclusion 108 Notes 109 Appendix: A Top-Down Representation of Our Bottom-Up Energy Demand Scenario 113
Page 1 and 2: ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD (iii
Page 3: Kathleen Courrier Publications Dire
Page 7 and 8: Foreword The 1970s saw nothing less
Page 9 and 10: The Energy Crisis Revisited The sha
Page 11 and 12: Table 1. Net Oil Imports and Their
Page 13 and 14: I. Some Surprises on the Demand Sid
Page 15 and 16: Figure 3. Cross-Section of a "Stres
Page 17 and 18: Table 2. Pre-Energy Crisis Trends i
Page 19 and 20: Figure 6. The Rapidly Changing Tech
Page 21 and 22: Figure 8. A High-Efficiency Wood St
Page 23 and 24: Figure 9. Alternative Projections o
Page 25 and 26: II. A Closer Look at the Energy Pro
Page 27 and 28: substitutes exist for fueling autom
Page 29 and 30: Tanzania. Each year human overuse l
Page 31 and 32: Higher CO 2 concentrations in the a
Page 33 and 34: would also buy time for the develop
Page 35 and 36: Figure 12. OECD Primary Energy Dema
Page 37 and 38: Figure 14. Primary Energy Consumpti
Page 39 and 40: might ensue. In short, the Middle E
Page 41 and 42: IV. Behind the Numbers E nergy is o
Page 43 and 44: Figure 15. Sectoral Distribution of
Page 45 and 46: Figure 17. Trends in the Apparent C
Page 47 and 48: containing less material per dollar
Page 49 and 50: Figure 20. The Material Intensity o
Page 51 and 52: Figure 21. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 53 and 54: Figure 23. Final Energy Intensity V
Page 55 and 56:
many different technological possib
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Table 4. Distribution of Petroleum
Page 59 and 60:
Table 5. Continued e. The average f
Page 61 and 62:
Detailed measurements in the late 1
Page 63 and 64:
Table 6. Energy Performance of Refr
Page 65 and 66:
Table 7. Final Energy Use in the Re
Page 67 and 68:
Table 8. Oil Use by Automobiles in
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the next several decades was 37 mpg
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Table 10. Continued d. The 39-kilow
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million autos in developing countri
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(the combined production of heat an
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Table 12. Parameters Relating to th
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Table 13. Final Energy Use Scenario
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Table 14. Final Per Capita Energy U
Page 83 and 84:
Table 16. Alternative Scenarios for
Page 85 and 86:
Table 18. Alternative Final Energy
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Table 20. Activity Levels for a Hyp
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Table 21. Continued g. A 25 percent
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Figure 28. Final Energy Use Per Cap
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V. Changing the Political Economy o
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are controlled to protect the poor,
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plementing social goals. Far more i
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energy performance targets. Such ta
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Of course, energy utilities won't b
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The era of energy-demand consciousn
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more difficult to implement in deve
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Efforts to modernize bioenergy woul
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Table 24. Expenditures of Multilate
Page 111 and 112:
support projects need not rely much
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These "threshold" countries are not
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Notes 1. The World Bank, World Deve
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35. H.S. Geller, The Potential for
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Appendix A Top-Down Representation
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Figure A-l A Top-Down Representatio
Page 123 and 124:
plausible expectations about energy
Page 125 and 126:
World Resources Institute 1735 New
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ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

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