ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE WORLD - World Resources Institute

Table 19. Alternative Final Energy Use Scenarios for the U.S. Industrial Sector
2020
1972 1980 Gross National Gross National
Product per Product per
Capita Up Capita Up
50 Percent 100 Percent
Industrial Output (billion 1972 dollars) 3
Annual Fuel Use (exajoules) b
Annual Electricity Use (exajoules)
Fuel Intensity (megajoules per 1972 dollar)
Electricity Intensity (megajoules per 1972
dollar)
Final Energy Intensity (megajoules per 1972
dollar)
406.1
25.2
2.3
62.1
5.7
67.8
464.7
23.7
3.0
51.0
6.4
57.5
837
14.1 C
4.7 c - d
16.8
5.6
22.5
1074
15. l c
5.1 c ' d
14.1
4.7
18.8
a. Industrial output is gross product originating in industry (manufacturing, construction, mining,
and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries). Following the trend established in the 1970s,
industrial output is assumed to grow 0.83 times as fast as gross national product.
b. Includes wood.
c. Final energy use for the year 2020 is determined by assuming that (1) the outputs of the
basic materials processing (BMP) and mining, agriculture, and construction (MAC) subsectors
of industry grow only as fast as the population between 1980 and 2020, because of demand
saturation, and (2) the average energy intensity of each industrial subsector [BMP,
MAC, and other manufacturing (OMFG)] is reduced in half between 1980 and 2020, via
energy efficiency improvements. Assumption (1) implies that from 1980 to 2020 the BMP
and MAC subsectors grow 30 percent and the OMFG subsector grows 130 percent and 230
percent, associated with a 50 percent and 100 percent increase in per capita gross national
product, respectively.
d. The electrical fraction of final energy use in industry in 2020 is assumed to be 0.25 (up from
0.11 in 1980). This increase is based on the assumed persistence of the relationship established
in the 1970s between the electrical fraction of final industrial energy use and time.
becoming available in industrialized countries.
In addition, enormous increases in energy efficiency
arise simply by shifting from traditional
inefficiently used non-commercial fuels (such as
cattle dung, crop residue, and wood) to
modern energy carriers (such as electricity, gas,
and processed solid fuels). The importance of
shifting to modern carriers is evident from the
fact that in Western Europe (where non-commercial
fuel use is very low) per capita final
energy use (for all purposes except space
heating) in 1975 averaged 2.3 kW, only two
and a half times what it was in developing
countries, even though the per capita gross
domestic product in Western Europe was ten
times as large as in developing countries.
In the 1-kW scenario, the residential sector
contributes much less to total energy use than
it does now. The residential sector today ac-
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