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WATER & SOIL - These are not the droids you are looking for.

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mates of Cp typically range between 2OVo and 44go <strong>for</strong> different<br />

regions. They <strong>are</strong> generally somewhat greater than<br />

Cp, and <strong>are</strong> generally <strong>not</strong> greatly influenced by <strong>the</strong> values<br />

assumed <strong>for</strong> p.<br />

Values estimated <strong>for</strong> Nu given in <strong>the</strong> right-hand column<br />

of Table 4.12 range from one year <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> West Coast of<br />

both islands to about seven years <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> East Coast of <strong>the</strong><br />

South Island. Such results <strong>are</strong> in accord with intuition.<br />

Where <strong>the</strong> Cy is low_(as on <strong>the</strong> West Coast) a reasonably accurate<br />

estimate of Qo5, may be obtained from a relatively<br />

short period of rec<br />

on<br />

is of limited valu<br />

is<br />

greater, a longer<br />

to<br />

estimate Qo6. with<br />

on<br />

equation estimate, and <strong>the</strong> regression equations may be of<br />

greater utility.<br />

tühere only a short period of record is available <strong>for</strong> a site<br />

<strong>for</strong> which a design flood estimate is required, a decision<br />

var (Q)<br />

weights <strong>for</strong> combin<br />

in a best estimate. If<br />

its variance can be e<br />

_l<br />

var (Qo6.)<br />

I<br />

var (Q.,x)<br />

4t0<br />

4.11 Summary<br />

_ The country was divided into nine regions lbr estimating<br />

Q using regression analysis. The physical justification lor<br />

<strong>the</strong>se regions was discussed. Apart from <strong>the</strong> south of <strong>the</strong><br />

South lsland, <strong>the</strong> study used a good distribution ol catchments,<br />

and <strong>the</strong> range of values covered <strong>for</strong> Q, <strong>are</strong>a, and<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r parameters was very large.<br />

The results demonstated that generally catchment <strong>are</strong>a<br />

and <strong>the</strong> rainfall parameters considered <strong>are</strong> sufficient to predict<br />

large differences in flood magnitudes within <strong>the</strong> nine<br />

regions delineated and that <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r physical characteristics<br />

used <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> catchments do <strong>not</strong> improve that prediction.<br />

Apart from <strong>the</strong> Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Alps of <strong>the</strong> South lsland,<br />

<strong>the</strong> mean annual rainfall can be estimated with reasonable<br />

confidence from isohyetal maps. Rainfall intensities were<br />

estimated from data available in Robertson's (1963) publication.<br />

Updated intensity data <strong>are</strong> now available (Tomlinson<br />

1980; Coulter and Hessell 1980) and, with more extensive<br />

intensity in<strong>for</strong>mation, better estimation equations <strong>are</strong><br />

anticipated.<br />

Preliminary results of <strong>the</strong> study enabled identification ol<br />

catchments which did <strong>not</strong> fit into regional trends. Where<br />

reasons <strong>for</strong> anomalies could be identified, <strong>the</strong> catchments<br />

were excluded from <strong>the</strong> final analyses since <strong>the</strong>ir inclusion<br />

could have led to biased results. About 790 of catchments<br />

were in this category. Designers should be aw<strong>are</strong> of factors<br />

likely to modify flood peaks and if in doubt seek specialisr<br />

advice.<br />

16<br />

Water & soil technical publication no. 20 (1982)

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