Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
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Mesoscale Weather Prediction<br />
Statistical Postprocessing<br />
Applications<br />
Conclusions and Challenges<br />
Mesoscale Extremes<br />
Predicting high-impact weather<br />
Ensemble Postprocessing<br />
Ensemble Postprocessing<br />
◮ COSMO-DE forecasts 1 July 2008 – 30 April 2010<br />
◮ lagged average ensemble<br />
12 h accumulated precipitation between 12 and 00 UTC<br />
forecast (LAF)<br />
• Umgebung<br />
• 4x9 member<br />
• 4x25 member<br />
• ...<br />
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 lead time<br />
Bentzien, <strong>Friederichs</strong> (2011)<br />
6<br />
First guess: probability, mean and 0.9-quantile<br />
from 5 × 5 neighborhood and 4 COSMO-DE forecasts<br />
P.<strong>Friederichs</strong> Extreme weather 11 / 45
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