Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

Mesoscale Weather Prediction
Statistical Postprocessing
Applications
Conclusions and Challenges
Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation
Case study – 3rd July 2009
Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts
Quantile forecasts - Skill Score
QVSS
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
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0.99 quantile
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+ + + ++ ●●●●●●●●●●●●● ++ +
+
+
++ + ++ + + + +
+ +
+ + ++
+
++ + ●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
+++ + ++
++
+
+ +
+
+++
+
+ + +
+
+ +
+
++ ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● +++ +
+
+
+ + +
+ + +
+ + +
+ + ++ + +
+ +
+ +
++ +
+
+
+
+
++ + ++ + +
+ ++
+ +
++
+
+ + + +
+
●
+
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+ +
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+
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QR
MIX
MIX.t
GPD
QR MIX MIX.t GPD
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
P.Friederichs Extreme weather 23 / 45