Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

Mesoscale Weather Prediction
Statistical Postprocessing
Applications
Conclusions and Challenges
Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation
Case study – 3rd July 2009
Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts
Quantile forecasts - Skill Score
QVSS
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
−0.1
−0.2
−0.3
0.99 quantile
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+
+
+ + + +
●●●●●●●●● ●● ●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● +
++
+ +
+
+ +
+
+ + +
+ ++ + + + +
+ + +
+
+ + + +
+
++ +
++
+
+++
+ +
+ ++
+++ + ++
+ + + + +
+ + +
+ +++ ++
+
+
+ + + + +
+ + +
+
+ +
+
+ +
+
● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● +
+
+ + +
+ + +
++ ++
+ +
+ +
+ +
+ + +
+
+ +
+
+ +
+ + ++ + +
+
++
+ + + + ++ +
+
+ + +
●
+
+ +
++ ++ + QR
MIX
MIX.t
GPD
QR MIX MIX.t GPD
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
P.Friederichs Extreme weather 24 / 45