Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
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Mesoscale Weather Prediction<br />
Statistical Postprocessing<br />
Applications<br />
Conclusions and Challenges<br />
Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation<br />
Case study – 3rd July 2009<br />
Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts<br />
Conditional marginal distribution<br />
Non-stationary process is characterised by atmospheric circulation<br />
◮ COSMO-DE forecasts: wind velocity 10m above ground<br />
◮ Diurnal and annual cycle<br />
◮ Topography and surface roughness<br />
◮ Spatially and temporally constant hyperparameters (MLE)<br />
µ t = Z(X t ) T γ ; σ t = Z(X t ) T ρ ; ξ t = ξ<br />
→ Diploma thesis <strong>of</strong> S. Memmel: BHM to spatially model parameter surfaces<br />
P.<strong>Friederichs</strong> Extreme weather 29 / 45