Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Why high-impact weather ◮ Mathematically: Defined as block maxima or excedances of large thresholds. Events that lie in the tails of a distribution ◮ Perseption: Rare, exceptional, ”large” and high impact ◮ Problems: ◮ ◮ 95% quantile of daily precipitation: ≈ 10 − 15mm/d ≈ 2-5 years of data – only few extremes events for verification P.Friederichs Extreme weather 2 / 45
Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Outline Predicting High-Impact Weather ◮ Atmospheric scales and mesoscale atmospheric dynamics ◮ Numerical weather prediction ◮ Forecast uncertainty and ensemble prediction systems Ensemble postprocessing ◮ Postprocessing: Extract and calibrate information Application ◮ Ensemble postprocessing – precipitation ◮ Spatial modelling – wind gusts P.Friederichs Extreme weather 3 / 45
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Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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