Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
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Mesoscale Weather Prediction<br />
Statistical Postprocessing<br />
Applications<br />
Conclusions and Challenges<br />
Mesoscale Extremes<br />
Predicting high-impact weather<br />
Ensemble Postprocessing<br />
Mesoscale Weather Prediction<br />
◮ Strong and disastrous impact <strong>of</strong> many weather extremes calls<br />
for reliable forecasts<br />
◮ ”Although forecasters have traditionally viewed weather<br />
prediction as deterministic, a cultural change towards<br />
probabilistic forecasting is in progress.” (T N Palmer, 2002)<br />
◮ Weather extremes do not come ”Out <strong>of</strong> the Blue”<br />
◮ Numerical weather forecast models provide reliable forecasts<br />
<strong>of</strong> the atmospheric circulation prone to generate extremes<br />
◮ Combination <strong>of</strong> dynamical and statistical analysis methods<br />
P.<strong>Friederichs</strong> Extreme weather 4 / 45
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