Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
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Mesoscale Weather Prediction<br />
Statistical Postprocessing<br />
Applications<br />
Conclusions and Challenges<br />
Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation<br />
Case study – 3rd July 2009<br />
Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts<br />
Reliability<br />
conditional observed frequency<br />
1.0<br />
0.8<br />
0.6<br />
0.4<br />
0.2<br />
0.0<br />
MIX<br />
fgp<br />
(b) 1mm threshold<br />
0.9<br />
0.6<br />
0.3<br />
0.0<br />
0.9<br />
0.6<br />
0.3<br />
0.0<br />
BS=0.094 REL=0.001 RES=0.086<br />
N=47202 (MIX)<br />
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1<br />
forecast distribution<br />
BS=0.102 REL=0.008 RES=0.085<br />
N=47202 (fgp)<br />
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0<br />
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1<br />
forecast probability<br />
forecast distribution<br />
P.<strong>Friederichs</strong> Extreme weather 20 / 45
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