Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

Mesoscale Weather Prediction
Statistical Postprocessing
Applications
Conclusions and Challenges
Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation
Case study – 3rd July 2009
Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts
Radar vs. rain gauge
QVSS (0.9 quantile), training: stations
verification:
radar field
60
52.5
0.6
quantile verification skill score (%)
50
40
30
●
●
latitude
52.0
51.5
51.0
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
20
●
verification:
verification:
●
83 stations
83 radar points
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●
●
●
●
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RD ST RD ST RD ●
● ST
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data for statistical model training
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Bentzien, Friederichs (2011)
50.5
6 7 8 9
longitude
0.1
0.0
Merging rain radar and station data PhD of K. Krebsbach within TR32
P.Friederichs Extreme weather 19 / 45