Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
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Mesoscale Weather Prediction<br />
Statistical Postprocessing<br />
Applications<br />
Conclusions and Challenges<br />
Semi-Parametric Approaches<br />
Parametric Approaches<br />
Forecast Verification: Proper Scoring Rules<br />
Parametric approach – Wind gusts<br />
probability<br />
1.0<br />
0.8<br />
0.6<br />
0.4<br />
0.2<br />
F(1)<br />
F(10)<br />
density<br />
1.0<br />
0.8<br />
0.6<br />
0.4<br />
0.2<br />
quantile [mm/12h]<br />
50<br />
10<br />
3<br />
1<br />
0.3<br />
0.5 quantile<br />
0.75 quantile<br />
0.95 quantile<br />
0.0<br />
0.0<br />
0.1<br />
0.1 0.3 1 3 10 50<br />
rain [mm/12h]<br />
0.1 0.3 1 3 10 50<br />
rain [mm/12h]<br />
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0<br />
probability<br />
◮ Mixture model: Y ∼ F y (y; Θ) with Θ = Θ(X)<br />
F y (y; Θ) = F GEV (y|Θ)<br />
P.<strong>Friederichs</strong> Extreme weather 16 / 45
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