Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation Case study – 3rd July 2009 Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts Construction of max-stable process – Kabluchko (2009) W i : zero-mean Gaussian random process R d with variance σ 2 (x) Poisson point process (U i i) on (0, ∞) with intensity u −2 du Z(r) = e −σ2 (r)/2 max{U i e W i (r) }, r ∈ R d i∈N is stationary and max-stable with standard Fréchet marginals P.Friederichs Extreme weather 34 / 45
Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation Case study – 3rd July 2009 Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts Extremal coefficient Extremal coefficient Θ N defined as with Θ N = V (1, . . . , 1) Prob(Y (r i ) ≤ y, ∀i ∈ N) = exp ( − Θ ) N , y Measure for degrees of freedom P.Friederichs Extreme weather 35 / 45
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Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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