Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation Case study – 3rd July 2009 Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts Quantile forecasts - Skill Score QVSS 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 −0.1 −0.2 −0.3 0.99 quantile ● + + + + + + + ●●●●●●●●● ●● ●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● + ++ + + + + + + + + + + ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + ++ + ++ + +++ + + + ++ +++ + ++ + + + + + + + + + +++ ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● + + + + + + + + ++ ++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + ++ + + + ++ + + + + ++ + + + + + ● + + + ++ ++ + QR MIX MIX.t GPD QR MIX MIX.t GPD 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 P.Friederichs Extreme weather 24 / 45
Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation Case study – 3rd July 2009 Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts Quantile forecasts, station and radar measurements rain [mm/12h] 50 40 30 20 10 0 ● Kleve ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● rain gauge radar q0.99 q0.95 q0.90 q0.75 Bentzien, Friederichs (2011) Jul 05 Jul 15 Jul 25 Aug 04 P.Friederichs Extreme weather 25 / 45
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Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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