Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
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Mesoscale Weather Prediction<br />
Statistical Postprocessing<br />
Applications<br />
Conclusions and Challenges<br />
Semi-Parametric Approaches<br />
Parametric Approaches<br />
Forecast Verification: Proper Scoring Rules<br />
Statistical postprocessing<br />
◮ Marginal distributions:<br />
Conditional on weather forecast<br />
Standard ensemble postprocessing<br />
◮ Ensemble MOS (e.g., Wilks, 2006; Gneiting et al., 2004)<br />
◮<br />
◮<br />
Ensemble dressing – Ensemle kernel dressing (e.g., Wang and<br />
Bishop, 2004; Broecker and Smith, 200)<br />
Bayesian model averaging (e.g., Hoeting et al, 1999; Raftery et al,<br />
2005)<br />
◮ Dependence structure:<br />
Transformed Gaussian random fields (e.g., Berrocal et al., 2008)<br />
Max-stable random fields (e.g., Kabluchko et al., 20098)<br />
P.<strong>Friederichs</strong> Extreme weather 13 / 45
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