Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation Case study – 3rd July 2009 Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts 03.07.2009, init 12 UTC rain [mm/12h] 03.07.2009, init 09 UTC rain [mm/12h] 03.07.2009, radar rain [mm/12h] 52.5 52.5 52.5 80 80 80 52.0 52.0 52.0 60 60 60 51.5 latitude 51.5 latitude 51.5 latitude 40 40 40 51.0 51.0 51.0 20 20 20 50.5 50.5 50.5 longitude longitude longitude 6 7 8 9 03.07.2009, init 06 UTC rain [mm/12h] 6 7 8 9 03.07.2009, init 03 UTC rain [mm/12h] 6 7 8 9 03.07.2009, 0.99 quantile (mixture model) rain [mm/12h] 52.5 52.5 52.5 140 80 80 120 52.0 52.0 52.0 60 60 100 51.5 latitude 51.5 latitude 51.5 latitude 80 40 40 60 51.0 51.0 51.0 40 20 20 50.5 50.5 50.5 20 longitude 6 7 8 9 Bentzien, Friederichs (2011) longitude 6 7 8 9 longitude 6 7 8 9 P.Friederichs Extreme weather 26 / 45
Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation Case study – 3rd July 2009 Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts Forecasting + Verification – German Weather Service type of gust threshold m/s km/h knots near gale > 14 50-60 28-33 gale 18 − 24 65-85 34-47 storm 25 − 28 90-100 48-55 violent storm 29 − 32 105-125 56-63 hurricane force > 33 > 120 > 64 P.Friederichs Extreme weather 27 / 45
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Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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