Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation Case study – 3rd July 2009 Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts Ensemble Postprocessing ◮ COSMO-DE forecasts 1 July 2008 – 30 April 2010 ◮ 12 h accumulated precipitation between 12 and 00 UTC n.train 20,30,..,90 Tage 30 T. ! Jul.08 Okt.08 Jan.09 Apr.09 Jul.09 Okt.09 Jan.10 Apr.10 P.Friederichs Extreme weather 18 / 45
Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Ensemble Postprocessing – Precipitation Case study – 3rd July 2009 Spatial Modelling – Wind Gusts Radar vs. rain gauge QVSS (0.9 quantile), training: stations verification: radar field 60 52.5 0.6 quantile verification skill score (%) 50 40 30 ● ● latitude 52.0 51.5 51.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 20 ● verification: verification: ● 83 stations 83 radar points ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● RD ST RD ST RD ● ● ST ● ● data for statistical model training ● ● ● ● Bentzien, Friederichs (2011) 50.5 6 7 8 9 longitude 0.1 0.0 Merging rain radar and station data PhD of K. Krebsbach within TR32 P.Friederichs Extreme weather 19 / 45
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Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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