Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT
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Mesoscale Weather Prediction<br />
Statistical Postprocessing<br />
Applications<br />
Conclusions and Challenges<br />
Mesoscale Extremes<br />
Predicting high-impact weather<br />
Ensemble Postprocessing<br />
COSMO-DE Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)<br />
◮ 2.8 km grid spacing – convection<br />
permitting NWP model<br />
◮ Operational forecasts 0-21 hours (DWD)<br />
◮ EPS with 20 (40) members since 12/10<br />
◮ Uncertainty due to<br />
Initial conditions<br />
Boundary conditions<br />
Model parameterization<br />
◮ High-impact weather<br />
Postprocessing is an integral part <strong>of</strong> an EPS<br />
GME<br />
COSMO-DE<br />
COSMO-EU<br />
Initial State Boundary Model<br />
Theis, DWD (2010)<br />
P.<strong>Friederichs</strong> Extreme weather 9 / 45
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