Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Mesoscale Extremes Predicting high-impact weather Ensemble Postprocessing Mesoscale extremes Squall-line 14 July 2010 1000 998 A. Kelbch (2010) 35 30 996 25 994 20 Gartenstation MIUB 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 July 2010 P.Friederichs Extreme weather 6 / 45
Mesoscale Weather Prediction Statistical Postprocessing Applications Conclusions and Challenges Mesoscale Extremes Predicting high-impact weather Ensemble Postprocessing High-impact weather ◮ European mid-latitudes: Heavy rain and/or violent wind, lightning, hail, . . . ◮ Deep midlatitude convection – Warm season heavy precipitation clusters ◮ Processes with time scale of ∼1h - 1d ◮ Convective cells – organized and embedded within larger weather systems – initiated on much smaller scales www.dwd.de ◮ THORPEX - European Section P.Friederichs Extreme weather 7 / 45
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Petra Friederichs - Chair of Statistics STAT

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