of the Verde Island Passage, Philippines - weADAPT

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climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines Hazards Among the components of climate change that may affect marine biodiversity include temperature, storminess, precipitation, sea-level rise, air-sea CO 2 concentration, changes in ocean circulation patterns, health of functionally linked neighboring ecosystems, as well as, human responses to climate change (Gilman et al. 2008). Knowledge of the extent or severities of vulnerability of coastal areas to these threats are needed in the formulation of mitigation and adaptation measures. Increase in ocean temperature Philippine-wide sea surface temperature (SST) has experienced an average increase of about 0.025°C/ year. However, the increase has not been spatially homogenous with areas in the northern tip of Luzon and eastern Visayas increasing the fastest while the lowest increase is found in western Mindanao (Figure 5). latitude 21ºN 18ºN 15ºN 12ºN 9ºN 6ºN 0.035 0.03 0.025 0.02 0.015 14ºN 13ºN 12ºN 120ºE 121ºE 122ºE 123ºE 1985-2005 Trends (˚C/decade) 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 Figure 6. SST increase (°C/year) in the Verde Island Passage from 1985-2006. Overall, SST anomalies exhibited inter-annual variability. This was explored by comparing the Maximum SST calculated for each year with the long-term average annual maximum SST (also referred to as the BaseMax as defined by NOAA–CRW) (Figure 7). The BaseMax is calculated using the entire data set but without the identified anomalous years 1987-88, 1992-93, 1998- 99, 2001-02. Results show significantly warmer SST occurred in the VIP during transition from a strong El Niño to a strong La Niña (i.e., 1987 and 1998 determined from Niño 3.4 data from the ENSO region in the middle of the Pacific). The annual variability is further highlighted using spatially-explicit difference between the Maximum SST for the year and the BaseMax (Figure 8). Again, 1987 and 1998 are seen as significantly warm years for the VIP, along with 1992, 2001, and 2005. 114ºE 117ºE 120ºE 123ºE 126ºE 129ºE longitude Figure 5 SST increase (°C/year) from 1985-2005 (taken from ICE-CREAM Proj.1 mid-term report). 2.5 2.0 For the Verde Island Passage, the study on sea surface temperature utilized the 1985-2006 gapfilled, 4 km resolution, weekly SST product developed by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration–Coral Reef Watch (NOAA–CRW). The NOAA AVHRR 22-year data showed a 0.15-0.30 oC/ decade increase in the VIP region (Figure 6). In general in the VIP, coastal areas experienced less increase relative to areas offshore. The only exception to this observation is the northeast side of Occidental Mindoro and the northwestern tip of Lubang Island. Offshore of Calatagan in western Batangas is also exceptional since it is the only site that shows near-zero increase in the last 22 years. SST anomaly 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 Niño 3.4 VIP Figure 7. Niño 3.4 region SST anomalies compared to VIP 5 month running mean. Highlighted beyond the gray shading are anomalies > ENSO +0.5 C. 8
chapter 1 • vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change: introduction I. 1985-1990 II. 1991-1996 III. 1997-2002 IV. 2003-2005 Maximum SST anomaly -1.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.8 Figure 8. Annual maximum SST anomaly: Max SST-basemax. Longer-term time series SST from HadISST1 (1900- 2008 for the VIP) shows a lesser degree of increase of only a 0.06°C/decade in the longer-term (Figure 9a). HadISST1 is an interpolated SST global product of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre which makes use of “both in situ SST observations from ships and buoys, and bias-adjusted SST from the satellite-borne AVHRR (inclusion started in 1982)” (Rayner et al. 2003). The 10-yr smoothed and de-trended annual HadISST1 (Figure 9b) also compares particularly well with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index for the same period (Figure 9c) (http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/ PDO.latest) with an observed lag of 5-10 years. This observation emphasizes the telecommunication between the Pacific and the VIP region and suggests that use of the last 2-3 decades of data to simulate future scenarios should be interpreted with caution. Specifically, all satellite-derived images go back in time only as far as the last PDO-shift in 1977 from negative to positive. All synoptic data available therefore belong to the PDO positive regime. In 2008, the early stage of a cool phase of the PDO was observed. There are no long-term synoptic data or satellite-derived data to represent the this cool phase. Increase in cyclonicity High SST fuels creation of storms. The Philippines, in particular, lies at the western boundary of the Pacific and typically experiences more than 20 typhoons per year. Patterns of typhoon generation and propagation in the western North Pacific have been shown to be related to the ENSO cycle as well as to other large scale atmospheric circulation (Camargo et al. 2007). Analysis of western Pacific Typhoon track data that a) SS b) SST (detrended) c) annual PDO 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.5 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 1900 1906 1912 1918 1924 1930 1936 1942 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 smoothed detrended annual SST 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 annual mean PDO index smoothed annual mean PDO index Figure 9. HadISST1 data for the VIP: a) annual mean SST; b) 10-yr smoothed and detrended annual HadISST1; and c) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index (1900-2008). 1995 2000 2005 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 smoothed annual PDO 9
Page 1 and 2: Climate change vulnerability assess
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Conservation International (CI) Mis
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