Guam Hazard Mitigation Plan - Western States Seismic Policy Council

SECTIONFIVERisk AssessmentPrevious OccurrencesThe NCDC’s Storm Event Database documents significant wildland fire events occurring inJanuary, February, March and April of 1998. The high number of fire incidents during thisseveral month timeframe was attributed to a very wet El Niño season in 1997 that was followedby a meteorological drought and heavy fuel loads from trees damaged by Super Typhoon Paka.During this period, approximately 1,400 fires burned 13,000 acres. One thousand residents wereforced to evacuate, one home was reported destroyed, and $250,000 in damage was reported. OnMarch 23, 1998, approximately 1,000 acres were burned. On March 23, 1998, the firesuppression efforts to fight the Tiyan and Toto Complex fires were authorized by FEMA toreceive fire suppression funding, under the declaration, FEMA-2197-DR-GU. More recently, theNCDC’s Storm Even Database notes a wildland fire event in May of 2001 that led to one injury.Probability of Future EventsAccording to the National Park Service, Fire statistics from the past ten years show that, onaverage, over 700 fires are set a year, burning as much as 15,000 acres of land (approximately 20percent of the total area of the island). The number and size of fires are likely increase duringdroughts that follow El Niño seasons.5.4 INVENTORY ASSETSThe third step in the risk assessment process is the identification of assets that may be affectedby hazard events. As discussed in detail in Section 4.8 (Assets), the inventory of assets is dividedinto the following three major categories:• Population• EFMUTS• GBS5.5 VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS AND POTENTIAL LOSS ESTIMATESThe fourth step in the risk assessment process is the vulnerability analysis and potential lossestimates. The intent here is to identify potentially vulnerable assets and to estimate potentiallosses associated therewith. Under optimal conditions, it is possible to compare the relativeseverity of hazard events on the assets, identify locations that are most severely affected, andestimate potential vulnerability and losses under future development scenarios.The DMA 2000 requirements for assessing vulnerability by jurisdiction and state facility areshown below. Vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of people, buildings, and infrastructure tophysical injury, harm, damage, or economic loss from a hazard.5-54