Guam Hazard Mitigation Plan - Western States Seismic Policy Council

SECTIONFIVERisk Assessmentcan cause damage, injuries, and fatalities on the ground at the site of a crash. The amount ofdamage at a crash location is related to the location of the accident and the nature of the crash.A large airplane accident can have indirect economic effects on Guam. For example, 99.1percent of tourists entering Guam arrive by air, and a large passenger airline crash coulddramatically affect Guam’s tourist economy by scaring tourists from traveling to Guam. A crashthat disables the functionality of the international airport can drastically reduce the movement ofgoods and people to and from the island, leading to a large negative economic effect. A crashinto a populated area can affect the economy and social health of that particular area.Aircraft accidents can be caused by mechanical failure, manufacturing error, pilot error, airtraffic controller error, natural hazards, and inappropriate cargo. While aircraft can also clearlybe used for terrorism, it is beyond the scope of this study to address acts of terrorism. Mechanicalfailures and manufacturing errors can cause an aircraft to function improperly and crash. Pilotand air traffic controller errors can lead to mid-air collisions and crashes into the ground or anelevated structure. Natural hazards, such as wind shear, terrain-induced turbulence, and poorvisibility, can lead to the loss of control of an aircraft or an incorrect judgment by a pilot.Inappropriate cargo, such as a pressurized container, can lead to sudden explosions and loss ofcontrol of an aircraft. Also, an aircraft accident can be caused by several of these factors thatcumulatively lead to loss of control of an aircraft and a crash.A transportation accident involving marine vessels can result in a large loss of life or a large lossof property and can have an adverse effect on the economy of Guam. This type of accident couldalso have an indirect adverse effect on the economy by leading to a temporary decrease intourism and the temporary loss of the shipment goods. Approximately 80 percent of Guam’sfood supplies and 95 percent of Guam’s goods are delivered to Guam on marine vessels.Between Fiscal Year 2003 and Fiscal Year 2010, the Port Authority of Guam (PAG) averaged2,054,180 revenue tons of cargo. In addition to the loss of property, a collision involving an oiltanker can result in a large environmental impact and an indirect economic impact due to atemporary shortage in oil and oil-based products (e.g., gasoline) on the island. Vessel collisionscan occur if a vessel runs aground or onto a reef, if the vessel collides with another vessel, or if avessel collides with a stationary facility in Apra Harbor.Depending on where it occurs, a vessel collision can lead to additional indirect effects. Forexample, a collision in the shipping lanes of Apra Harbor can cause part or the entire harbor tobe blocked. This type of event would affect both the Commercial Port of Guam and militaryoperations based in Apra Harbor. This event can adversely affect Guam’s economy because themovement of goods via the port will be halted. If the accident is severe, it could take a long timeto clear the blockage of the shipping lanes.Accidents involving marine vessels can be caused by errors in operating the vessels,communication errors between vessel operators and port operators, mechanical errors on thevessels, and natural hazards. Also, a combination of these factors can lead to a marine vesselaccident. Natural hazards, like high winds or high surf, combined with errors in vessel operationor mechanical errors, can lead to a loss of control of a vessel. In addition, vessels that are notadequately moored and anchored can be displaced and potentially collide with something duringa hazard event (e.g., a typhoon).5-45