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TROUBLED WATERS - Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society

TROUBLED WATERS - Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society

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chance of fog decreases from 15 to 5 per cent. In the following months to November there is no cleartrend. In December, the probability of precipitation is 24 per cent. These results indicate that Marchhas the highest chance of precipitation of all the whaling months. The probability of fog is highlyvariable in the winter, but from September onwards, the probability of fog increases from 3 per cent toaround 15 per cent in December <strong>and</strong> January. Thus, in the period when the probability of precipitationis low, the probability of fog is relatively high. So if the issue of reduced visibility is considered, fogrelatedproblems add to those caused by precipitation in these months. How the whalers respond to fogor precipitation is unclear, <strong>and</strong> it would be of great value if more information was made available by thewhalers to help underst<strong>and</strong> how these weather states affect the efficiency of whale killing.Wind speed <strong>and</strong> wave heightThe average wind speed, regardless of its direction, increases from 7.4 ms-1 (a moderate breeze) inJanuary to 9.3 ms-1 (fresh breeze) in March. However, the wind speed is highly variable from Apriluntil October, with the highest variation in the months with the highest averages. These are September<strong>and</strong> October (10.5 ms-1; fresh breeze). Thereafter the wind speed reduces to 7.7 ms-1 in December.Given the variation, probabilities of wind speeds higher than 11.2 ms-1 (strong breeze <strong>and</strong> higher) inMarch or November, or 14.3 ms-1 (moderate gale <strong>and</strong> higher) in October are significant (10, 13 <strong>and</strong>20 per cent respectively).The average height of the waves (calculated from the upper third of all wave heights, known as‘significant wave height’, see also www.oceanweather.com ) <strong>and</strong> the time between reoccurrences of themost violent <strong>and</strong> energetic waves (known as ‘Tpeak’) is estimated at one location: 67.5° S <strong>and</strong> 180° W.This has been done using the GROW model of Oceanweather Inc. <strong>and</strong> is based on the years 1970 until2001. The average significant wave height tends to increase from 2.2 to 3.4 metres between January<strong>and</strong> March <strong>and</strong> tends to remain relatively high until June with an average wave height of 3.2 metres.The height is not known for the following months, but averages 1.9 metres in December. The missingvalues are for months in <strong>and</strong> after the winter, when the ice covers the sea. The model excludes data inthese cases. The Tpeak seems to follow the same trend as the wave height, starting with around 10.5seconds in December <strong>and</strong> January <strong>and</strong> increasing thereafter to about 11.5 seconds in the period Aprilto June.WEATHER, SEA CONDITION AND SHIP MOTIONS AFFECTING ACCURACY IN WHALING65The wind increases from January until March, but becomes more variable thereafter. This together withthe growing percentage of ice in the area, blocking wave formation after March, may explain why thehighest waves are found in March before the significant formation of sea ice. It can, therefore, bepostulated that March may be one of the most severe months (in terms of adverse weather conditions)in which to perform whaling operations in the research area.Ship motions in March <strong>and</strong> December at an Antarctic whaling groundShip motions have been calculated using the SHIPMO computer programme of the Maritime ResearchInstitute in the Netherl<strong>and</strong>s (Anon 2002). The ship used for these calculations was similar to theJapanese whale catching vessel Toshi Maru No.25. A sailing speed of 6 knots, head seas coming in at 30degrees <strong>and</strong> local sea depth of 1,000 metres were used in the model. The model was run for estimatedsea conditions during March <strong>and</strong> December, as described above. The motions considered were, thesway (from left to right), heave (up <strong>and</strong> down) <strong>and</strong> surge (forward <strong>and</strong> backward), as would beexperienced at the level of the harpoon on top of the bow. Table 1 provides the results for thesedifferent motions in December <strong>and</strong> March.

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