chance of fog decreases from 15 to 5 per cent. In the following months to November there is no cleartrend. In December, the probability of precipitation is 24 per cent. These results indicate that Marchhas the highest chance of precipitation of all the whaling months. The probability of fog is highlyvariable in the winter, but from September onwards, the probability of fog increases from 3 per cent toaround 15 per cent in December <strong>and</strong> January. Thus, in the period when the probability of precipitationis low, the probability of fog is relatively high. So if the issue of reduced visibility is considered, fogrelatedproblems add to those caused by precipitation in these months. How the whalers respond to fogor precipitation is unclear, <strong>and</strong> it would be of great value if more information was made available by thewhalers to help underst<strong>and</strong> how these weather states affect the efficiency of whale killing.Wind speed <strong>and</strong> wave heightThe average wind speed, regardless of its direction, increases from 7.4 ms-1 (a moderate breeze) inJanuary to 9.3 ms-1 (fresh breeze) in March. However, the wind speed is highly variable from Apriluntil October, with the highest variation in the months with the highest averages. These are September<strong>and</strong> October (10.5 ms-1; fresh breeze). Thereafter the wind speed reduces to 7.7 ms-1 in December.Given the variation, probabilities of wind speeds higher than 11.2 ms-1 (strong breeze <strong>and</strong> higher) inMarch or November, or 14.3 ms-1 (moderate gale <strong>and</strong> higher) in October are significant (10, 13 <strong>and</strong>20 per cent respectively).The average height of the waves (calculated from the upper third of all wave heights, known as‘significant wave height’, see also www.oceanweather.com ) <strong>and</strong> the time between reoccurrences of themost violent <strong>and</strong> energetic waves (known as ‘Tpeak’) is estimated at one location: 67.5° S <strong>and</strong> 180° W.This has been done using the GROW model of Oceanweather Inc. <strong>and</strong> is based on the years 1970 until2001. The average significant wave height tends to increase from 2.2 to 3.4 metres between January<strong>and</strong> March <strong>and</strong> tends to remain relatively high until June with an average wave height of 3.2 metres.The height is not known for the following months, but averages 1.9 metres in December. The missingvalues are for months in <strong>and</strong> after the winter, when the ice covers the sea. The model excludes data inthese cases. The Tpeak seems to follow the same trend as the wave height, starting with around 10.5seconds in December <strong>and</strong> January <strong>and</strong> increasing thereafter to about 11.5 seconds in the period Aprilto June.WEATHER, SEA CONDITION AND SHIP MOTIONS AFFECTING ACCURACY IN WHALING65The wind increases from January until March, but becomes more variable thereafter. This together withthe growing percentage of ice in the area, blocking wave formation after March, may explain why thehighest waves are found in March before the significant formation of sea ice. It can, therefore, bepostulated that March may be one of the most severe months (in terms of adverse weather conditions)in which to perform whaling operations in the research area.Ship motions in March <strong>and</strong> December at an Antarctic whaling groundShip motions have been calculated using the SHIPMO computer programme of the Maritime ResearchInstitute in the Netherl<strong>and</strong>s (Anon 2002). The ship used for these calculations was similar to theJapanese whale catching vessel Toshi Maru No.25. A sailing speed of 6 knots, head seas coming in at 30degrees <strong>and</strong> local sea depth of 1,000 metres were used in the model. The model was run for estimatedsea conditions during March <strong>and</strong> December, as described above. The motions considered were, thesway (from left to right), heave (up <strong>and</strong> down) <strong>and</strong> surge (forward <strong>and</strong> backward), as would beexperienced at the level of the harpoon on top of the bow. Table 1 provides the results for thesedifferent motions in December <strong>and</strong> March.
Table 1. Significant peak-to-peak sways, heaves <strong>and</strong> surgesDecemberMarchSway mean 0.61 1.20st. dev. 0.17 0.37N 658 (11) 386 (6)Heave mean 1.82 3.37st. dev. 0.57 1.23N 224 (4) 116 (2)Surge mean 0.26 0.62st. dev. 0.10 0.22N 531 (9) 226 (4)Table 1. Significant peak-to-peak sways, heaves <strong>and</strong> surges (in metres) on the basis of theSHIPMO model <strong>and</strong> at 6.5 metres above the waterline at the bow of a ship comparable to aJapanese whale catcher sailing at six knots in December <strong>and</strong> March with 30 degrees head wavesas characterised in the forelast paragraph. N is the number of samples in the upper third of thefrequency distribution taken during one hour. The number in one minute is in brackets.66A REVIEW OF THE WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF MODERN WHALING ACTIVITIESThe results of conditions in March demonstrate that six sways averaging 1.2 metres, two heavesaveraging 3.4 metres <strong>and</strong> four surges of 0.6 metres, could be expected each minute. When the modelwas run using sea conditions expected during December, sways <strong>and</strong> surges were reduced by half,while the average heave was 1.8 metres. However, the numbers of sways, heaves or surges per minute,was twice that which would be expected under the March simulation. Figure 1 illustrates the effecton accuracy when only one heave is considered. In this figure the height of the harpoon above sealevel is ´h´ <strong>and</strong> the horizontal distance between the harpoon <strong>and</strong> a whale is ´d´. Thus, a theoreticalline between the aimed harpoon <strong>and</strong> the whale would make a triangle with height h <strong>and</strong> base d.Suppose h is 6.5 metres <strong>and</strong> d is 40 metres as in a whaling operation. Then an increase x of h (whichat the least equals half a peak-to-peak heave) would give a substantial change (y) in projection of theharpoon. In the example y would be 5.5 metres when the heave is 1.8 metres as might beyFigure 1. A relatively small increase (x) in the height (h) of the harpoon as a wave lifts the bow ofthe ship, results in a large change in projection (y) of a harpoon aimed just before the wave at awhale at a distance (d) from the whaling ship, which would have to be compensated during thewave motion in order to try to maintain the aim (for further explanation see the text).dXh
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ForewordWhales are highly evolved a
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1 Executive SummaryThis review exam
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2 A background to whalingPhilippa B
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y the weapon’s enormous recoil, w
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Japan currently whales in the Antar
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Otto, K. 1997. Animal Pain Behaviou
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ASCOBANS came into force in 1994. F
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The Treaty of the Panama Canal, ena
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law says, but also the extent to wh
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15 Whaling and welfarePhilippa Brak
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commercial whaling. Times to death
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eath). Using the current criteria t
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possibility of establishing a simil
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international customary law and exi
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16 Summary of conclusionsModern day
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Glossary136A REVIEW OF THE WELFARE
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Appendix IIColour plates©Mark Voti
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142A REVIEW OF THE WELFARE IMPLICAT
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Figure 13. Processing minke whales