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CHAPTER 5 FORECASTS OF CRUISE PASSENGER AND SHIPMOVEMENTSINTRODUCTIONThe cruising industry globally has maintained a moderate level of growth over the pastfew years and this growth is expected to continue. Within this environment, Australia iswell placed to take advantage of this growth and to increase its market share.Australia’s international cruise shipping market grew strongly until 2000-01 (Figure5.1), and then it declined sharply in 2001-02 and 2002-03, largely as a result of theSeptember 11 terrorist attacks in the USA and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS) epidemic in Asia. Although several cruise ships moved their operation toAustralia to avoid the SARS epidemic in Asia, it was not enough to offset the totaladverse impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks and the SARS epidemic on thenumber of international cruise passengers.FIGURE 5.1 INBOUND AND OUTBOUND SEA PASSENGER NUMBERS3530Numbers ('000)25201510501993-941994-951995-961996-971997-981998-991999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-05InboundOutboundThe total (both inbound and outbound) number of international sea passengers increasedby an average annual rate of 17.9 per cent a year during 1993-94 to 2000-01 and thendeclined by 32.5 per cent in 2001-02 and 36.7 per cent in 2002-03. The declining trend93
ended in 2003-04 with an increase of 15.9 per cent in total international sea passengernumbers following 72.7 per cent increase in the number of outbound sea passengers.The purpose of this chapter is to analyse and forecast the short-term movement of seapassengers and cruise ships over the next twenty years. Its main focus will be thenumber of overseas sea passengers coming to Australia for a short-term visit and thenumber of Australian sea passengers going overseas for a short-term visit. However, anattempt has been made to forecast the number of both international and domestic cruisepassenger visits and ship visits in Australia.THE GLOBAL CRUISE SHIPPING INDUSTRYThe global industryThe global cruise shipping industry is dominated by three major players, also known asthe ‘Big Three’. They are ‘Carnival Corporation & Plc’, ‘Royal CaribbeanInternational’, both from the USA, and ‘Star Cruises Group’ from Malaysia. The globalfleet consists of 278 active ships with a total Lower Berth (LB) passenger capacity of273 226. The ‘Big Three’ collectively operate 116 ships under 19 brands with a total LBpassenger capacity of 198 063. This represents 42 per cent of the global fleet and 73 percent of the global passenger capacity (DVB 2004).‘Carnival Corporation and Plc’ was created in 2003 by a merger of ‘CarnivalCorporation’ and ‘P&O Princess Plc Cruises’. Carnival is now the world’s leadingcruise operator and by 2008 it is expected that it will have a capacity of 149 933 LB(DVB 2004). It is also estimated that this will be twice the size of ‘Royal Caribbean’and almost five times bigger than the ‘Star Cruises Group’.The domination of the ‘Big Three’ allows for greater investment in larger ships thatproduce greater economies of scale, which in turn, is likely to produce continueddomination. The majority of the new building orders are being placed by the ‘BigThree’, and as at November 2003 there were 28 new ships on order.The domination of the ‘Big Three’ is possible because regulatory authorities in the USAand Europe view the cruise industry not as an individual segment but rather as part ofthe global leisure and tourism industry. Ships are marketed as alternatives to land-basedresorts and offer a range of services and facilities that categorise them as floating hotelsrather than cruise ships. The cruise ship generates its own demand and is deployedprimarily according to the market it can satisfy.The global cruise industry carried approximately 10.4 million passengers in the year2002. Over the past two decades the industry has achieved a global annual growth rateof 8.0 per cent, and during the 1990s the industry almost tripled in size (TQ and DSD2001). Australia’s potential share of this global market has been identified as a majorgrowth area.94
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Bureau of Transport and Regional Ec
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FOREWORDThis report presents the na
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Other ships........................
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Table 4.3Table 4.4Proportion of 40-
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Table I.3Estimated regression stati
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Figure 4.12Figure 4.13Non-container
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYBACKGROUNDInternat
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to 52 to 55 per cent in Brisbane, S
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containerised trade is forecast to
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next twenty years to 12.6 million t
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The total containerised trade of Po
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Other ports‘Other ports’ in thi
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CRUISE SHIPPING FORECASTSAustralia
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elation to the movement of containe
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CHAPTER 2 FREIGHT FORECASTING MODEL
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CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.1 CONTAINERISED T
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CHAPTER 2FIGURE 2.3 NON-CONTAINERIS
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CHAPTER 2The exchange rate variable
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CHAPTER 2volume of containerised im
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CHAPTER 2appreciation (depreciation
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CHAPTER 2exports by 0.2 per cent in
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CHAPTER 2on the price of sea travel
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CHAPTER 3 FREIGHT MODELLING DATA AN
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CHAPTER 3containerised imports, but
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CHAPTER 3containers which are suita
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CHAPTER 3Non-container vessel sizeT
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agricultural commodities fell becau
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container imports and 2.5 per cent
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TABLE 4.2 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERIS
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FIGURE 4.3 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE,
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PBC is also developing an additiona
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FIGURE 4.4 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
Page 71 and 72: TABLE 4.6CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AND
Page 73 and 74: TABLE 4.8 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CON
Page 75 and 76: TABLE 4.9 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TRA
Page 77 and 78: increase by 1.3 per cent a year ove
Page 79 and 80: FIGURE 4.7 CARGO SHARES IN OUTBOUND
Page 81 and 82: per cent), Hong Kong (4.4 per cent)
Page 83 and 84: TABLE 4.13 PROPORTION OF 40-FOOT CO
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Page 87 and 88: facilitate the movement of containe
Page 89 and 90: FIGURE 4.11 CONTAINERISED TRADE, 19
Page 91 and 92: TABLE 4.17 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
Page 93 and 94: 55.3 per cent in 2003-04 largely du
Page 95 and 96: TABLE 4.20 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
Page 97 and 98: it accounts for 15 per cent of outb
Page 99 and 100: TABLE 4.21 CONTAINERISED EXPORTS AN
Page 103 and 104: TABLE 4.24 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
Page 105 and 106: The capacity of Fremantle Port will
Page 107 and 108: 2024-25, whereas international non-
Page 111 and 112: TABLE 4.29 NON-CONTAINERISED SEA TR
Page 113 and 114: 25. International containerised exp
Page 115 and 116: TABLE 4.32 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERI
Page 117 and 118: FIGURE 4.19 NON-CONTAINERISED TRADE
Page 119 and 120: TABLE 4.35 INTERNATIONAL NON-CONTAI
Page 124 and 125: Chapter 5Cruising typesThe cruising
Page 126 and 127: Chapter 510.0 per cent each and the
Page 128 and 129: Chapter 5Similarly, ship capacity o
Page 130 and 131: Chapter 5FIGURE 5.3 SHORT-TERM SEA
Page 132 and 133: APPENDIX IESTIMATED REGRESSION STAT
Page 134 and 135: APPENDIX IITABLE I.3Variable by por
Page 136 and 137: APPENDIX IITABLE I.5Variable by por
Page 138: APPENDIX IITABLE I.7Variable by por
Page 141 and 142: DVB 2004, The Cruise Industry and i
Page 144: ABBREVIATIONSABS Australian Bureau
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